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Surf Forcasting Duds...

For awhile, I found the Swellinfo and Magicseaweed forecasts to be pretty spot on. This past week... Not even close. The swells that were supposed to roll in on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, were short period wind blown messes. The chest to head sets forecasted for this AM, turned out to double overhead plus monsters. Maybe just a very (temporarily) variable transitional phase of Jetstream pattern. Hopefully, the Jetstream will get into a groove. Hard to plan sessions when each morning is like Gump's "box of chocolates." I like nuts and chews but am getting a lot of icky cream fills...

sing

Comments

  • Come to CA - we should have some waves even if the forecasts are off by a bit:

  • Must be nice. To, cold to paddle for me in the great lakes. Sure some do but once the snow flies iam out. Post video of some surfing would be nice.

  • @Peter-CA said:
    Come to CA - we should have some waves even if the forecasts are off by a bit:

    I'll pass, Peter. They just put the Jaws contest on hold in Waimea because the surf is getting too big... even by "Hawaiian standards." (On the other hand, I hear the "Eddie Would Go" contest is back on since it doesn't run unless it is 20' plus, Hawaiian standard. )

    That stuff has got to be rolling your way. ..

    I am NE surfer, not a Hawaiian surfer... I am fine and happily challenged with simple head highs these days. (Last time I went out in double overhead, about 10 years ago, I peed my wetsuit when I managed to get out past the break zone... LOL!)

    sing

  • @dc9mm said:
    Must be nice. To, cold to paddle for me in the great lakes. Sure some do but once the snow flies iam out. Post video of some surfing would be nice.

    Wish I could. Anything head plus would require a drone, or higher ground vantage point. You really can't get footage of the action from an even horizontal line of sight. The action is all happening in between the wave sets.

    sing

  • 'Hopefully, the Jetstream will get into a groove. Hard to plan sessions when each morning is like Gump's "box of chocolates." I like nuts and chews but am getting a lot of icky cream fills...'

    sing

    Scary Streams of Conscious Wave Back at Me
    (The Oceanic Confectioner Is Assorted Wicked)

    Icky cream fills,
    pile overhead small kills.
    But who's a nut to chew,
    on Mavericks-wreck stew?

    Fetching Jetstream makes dare,
    "Who's in groove to slide Nazare?"
    Waves have run-ins with dump.
    Run faster Forrest Gump!

  • Here it comes .... I'm going to find a nice sheltered spot tomorrow AM .... then after surfing checkout where it's biggest to watch the the carnage.
    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=46006&meas=wvht&uom=E&time_diff=-8&time_label=PST

  • In some respects I miss living way out in Hull, I often used to paddle at least 3 days a week, and a quick look out the window let me know what mood the water was in. Found some good spots to play in when things were large around the corner. But getting in and out of Hull took forever, I think it's a good 30 minutes to the highway, and at least another40 to town. Living closer to Boston is more convenient for real life, but I still prefer paddling around Hull versus Boston harbor.
    And now the guys who own the surf cams are charging for the live cams, so you just get a screen shot every few hours. Harder to figure out what is happening without real time video, or at least a few refreshes to compare sets. I guess I could cough up a few bucks every month, for the price of a cup of coffe, but something about it bugs me.
    And there's the buoys, but sometimes those get knocked offline, or it's just hard to tell what the surf will look like when you get down there. Especially when you're optimistic about surf reports.
    But yeah, I've been down at Nantasket with a bunch of surfers scratching their heads and looking at their phones trying to figure out what's up, because the forecast looks great, but it's just dropping by the minute on the water.
    Hope something good comes through and sets you up for some fun!

  • @SeaDart said:
    Here it comes .... I'm going to find a nice sheltered spot tomorrow AM .... then after surfing checkout where it's biggest to watch the the carnage.
    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=46006&meas=wvht&uom=E&time_diff=-8&time_label=PST

    Big carnage coming your way! :)

    https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/jaws-challenge-shouldnt-called-off/39561

    sing

  • edited November 28

    @Johnnysmoke said:
    In some respects I miss living way out in Hull, I often used to paddle at least 3 days a week, and a quick look out the window let me know what mood the water was in. Found some good spots to play in when things were large around the corner. But getting in and out of Hull took forever, I think it's a good 30 minutes to the highway, and at least another40 to town. Living closer to Boston is more convenient for real life, but I still prefer paddling around Hull versus Boston harbor.
    And now the guys who own the surf cams are charging for the live cams, so you just get a screen shot every few hours. Harder to figure out what is happening without real time video, or at least a few refreshes to compare sets. I guess I could cough up a few bucks every month, for the price of a cup of coffe, but something about it bugs me.
    And there's the buoys, but sometimes those get knocked offline, or it's just hard to tell what the surf will look like when you get down there. Especially when you're optimistic about surf reports.
    But yeah, I've been down at Nantasket with a bunch of surfers scratching their heads and looking at their phones trying to figure out what's up, because the forecast looks great, but it's just dropping by the minute on the water.
    Hope something good comes through and sets you up for some fun!

    4' at 11 seconds this AM. Sing would go! (Eddie Aikau would have yawned and gone back to sleep. LOL!)

    sing

  • edited November 28

    @canoeswithduckheads said:
    'Hopefully, the Jetstream will get into a groove. Hard to plan sessions when each morning is like Gump's "box of chocolates." I like nuts and chews but am getting a lot of icky cream fills...'

    sing

    Scary Streams of Conscious Wave Back at Me
    (The Oceanic Confectioner Is Assorted Wicked)

    Icky cream fills,
    pile overhead small kills.
    But who's a nut to chew,
    on Mavericks-wreck stew?

    Fetching Jetstream makes dare,
    "Who's in groove to slide Nazare?"
    Waves have run-ins with dump.
    Run faster Forrest Gump!

    Not a silver tongue surfer. So, yesterday evening, I had some craft brewed suds to wash away the saccharine taste of crème filled duds.

    This morning, all was right with my world again.

    Beautiful dawn patrol

    Several of us partaking in clean mellow fun afforded by an abundance of chest high surf

    sing

  • A silver tongue's my aim
    through river's rocked maze game,
    but I'm spittoon speak and sputter,
    unsteady eddy missed I mutter.

    Sun up just yet
    with mellow sets
    to ride you in towards shore,
    now comes December
    is fire more than ember
    sportin' only that 5/4?

    Don't know how you do it, Sir Sing. Pushin' into 6 decades now I'm finding it harder to keep the extremities in a semi-heated and flexible state. Even though I work outside year round. And, with Huy Fong's Sriracha taken in liberal doses! Guess I need to sprinkle more paprika into my skin cream. Dam 35-knot hawk feels like it's piercing frozen talons into me today.

  • Bleah !!! My wife made an appointment for me to meet a contractor in the middle of the "surfable window" when there were nice big glassy waves - it lasted about three hours and then windblown junk. Today the real storm hit and I went down to Beacons to check it out . Wind was onshore about 40 kts , driving rain, but the big sets ~ 12 ft looked surfable , really nasty trying to paddle out into that though, and nobody was out. Good news is we are getting decent rain here to kill some fire danger.

  • @SeaDart said:
    Wind was onshore about 40 kts , driving rain, but the big sets ~ 12 ft looked surfable , really nasty trying to paddle out into that though, and nobody was out. Good news is we are getting decent rain here to kill some fire danger.

    Hey, you live on the west coast. Means opportunity to surf will come again... SOON! More important that the fires are getting knocked down. :)

    sing

  • edited November 30

    It's a wrap. Got some TGIF surf in. Had some medical appointments today. Decided to include mental health therapy, aka surf stoke. Nice, mellow swells - 3' plus at 12' seconds still rolling in from the departed nor'easter out in the Maritimes. Got in an easy 3 hours plus in -- under sunny sky, light off-shore breeze, air temp in the low 30s and water temp in upper 40s.

    About half a dozen of us who skipped out something to be out on the break. :)

    Jetstream seems in place to bring a disturbance up the coast next week. Fingers crossed. :smile:

    sing

  • The surf forecasters are still off. Supposed to have been flat for the last couple of days, and yet the surfable stuff has continued to roll in as confirmed by buoy data and surf cams (jealously watched someone catch and ride a wave in on the cam at sunrise this morning...).

    Yikes, need to move near the water.

    sing

  • edited December 4

    I know, it's a lot easier to stay in tune with the water if you're near it, but I think you'd have to get out a bit away from Boston. We're in Quincy, and all I can tell when driving Wollaston beach is if it's windy or not, hard to figure out what's further out. Boston harbor is fairly protected, other than the good old nor'easter, Hull and the islands block a lot of the energy. Maybe Winthrop would be a good spot?
    Here's a surf report from a bit south, can give you an idea of what's coming up the coast.
    https://www.prosurfcoaches.com/eyeball-surf-report

  • This AM, there were waist highs showing up in NH and ME surf cams. (Here is a list of mostly free cams.)

    http://www.nesurf.com/reports/surfing-forecast/cams

    I am just struck by how the Swellinfo and Magicseaweed seem so off on their forecast this past month. Just curious to why. The buoy data and cams give near on-the-moment conditions. Problem is that this ain't enough of a "runway" to plan around work stuff to make a session possible. I need a couple of days usually to make it work (in terms of rearranging schedules and logistics since I normally don't drive to work).

    sing

  • Magicseaweed used to be pretty bad for the breaks I surf. It's gotten better , but I know to add a fudge factor based on the buoy data I can look at myself. I think Magicseaweed did not know the channel islands existed for several years, it seems to take into account island shadows now. Have not tried Swellinfo. Solspot forecasts are pretty good for two breaks I surf most often, except when it's really big, then they really seem to under estimate. I'm lucky to control my own schedule. I get up look at the buoys and if it's light the surf cams and then hit the beach. Right now it's pretty dark in the mornings so mostly using buoys. I went out this morning when it was basically flat since I haven't bee on my SUP surfing since before thanksgiving, I manged to find a few waist high waves, I'm lucky here;there is usually something to surf within a half hour drive.

  • edited December 5

    @SeaDart said:
    Magicseaweed used to be pretty bad for the breaks I surf. It's gotten better , but I know to add a fudge factor based on the buoy data I can look at myself. I think Magicseaweed did not know the channel islands existed for several years, it seems to take into account island shadows now. Have not tried Swellinfo. Solspot forecasts are pretty good for two breaks I surf most often, except when it's really big, then they really seem to under estimate. I'm lucky to control my own schedule. I get up look at the buoys and if it's light the surf cams and then hit the beach. Right now it's pretty dark in the mornings so mostly using buoys. I went out this morning when it was basically flat since I haven't bee on my SUP surfing since before thanksgiving, I manged to find a few waist high waves, I'm lucky here;there is usually something to surf within a half hour drive.

    Now I have to be jealous of your copious surf, combined with your flexible schedule... Life just ain't fair! LOL!

    I have never heard of Solspot. Gonna have to add it on to the forecast list and see how well it does for NE.

    sing

  • @Johnnysmoke said:
    I know, it's a lot easier to stay in tune with the water if you're near it, but I think you'd have to get out a bit away from Boston. We're in Quincy, and all I can tell when driving Wollaston beach is if it's windy or not, hard to figure out what's further out. Boston harbor is fairly protected, other than the good old nor'easter, Hull and the islands block a lot of the energy. Maybe Winthrop would be a good spot?
    Here's a surf report from a bit south, can give you an idea of what's coming up the coast.
    https://www.prosurfcoaches.com/eyeball-surf-report

    The homebreak and 'tasket go off on the same swells and direction. We just have more consistent and better set waves at the homebreak. :) Last time session, I spent a lot of the time out on the outer reef by myself. No comp for waves. Not that it is a problem in the winter when we rarely have more than a handful of folks (mostly local) out there. Let me know, if you think you want to check it out.

    Looks like knee highs forecasted, maybe, for this Saturday. If accurate/true (BIG if), I'll go play with some longboat surfing again.

    sing

  • We are in the middle of a big pacific winter storm ( big for San Diego anyway). As it was approaching yesterday morning though, there were mild offshore winds and no swell whatsoever. Buoys were reading something like 6 inches. I went out for a SUP paddle up and down the coast in Lajolla. In the winter time I always dive under three or four waves to get adjusted to the "cold" water. Yesterday when I did this, there were no waves so I just dove under and swam for a few strokes and looked up out the water , which was crystal clear, I could see all the way along the surface of the water to what looked like the horizon, I've never seen a flatter calmer ocean here, and never had the same optical rush of seeing all the way to the edge of the earth on a sheet of calm, clear blue water. I paddled about three miles and as the storm started to come in some waves came too, and I surfed a bit and waited for the wind and the rain and wasn't disappointed. It was like watching those old time lapse movies from the 50s and 60s about the changes of nature, It only took about 2 hours to go from dead calm and blue skies to a nice raging rain storm on the water, huge black swirling clouds, and sheets of rain, and turbulence on the water surface. Of course I was the only nut out on the water enjoying the show. Real Californians think they will melt like the Wicked Witch of the East if rain touches them, even when wearing a wetsuit and hood.

  • @SeaDart I recently moved to Ventura county and laugh at SoCal's reaction to rain. (im from MN and was in the NE for a couple years so know what real cold and rain is)

    I didnt have a jacket or umbrella yesterday and multiple people at my work asked me if I was nuts. It was cool out, but not bad in the office. I also laugh at the ~400 crashes around LA from the rain last week. Its like if the sky is not perfectly blue and dry no one can drive. Just saying, I thought the same thing about the wicked witch and water. lol.

    I've been out paddling on the weekends and have only seen a couple outriggers besides the surfski friend I paddle with.

    Early one morning on the coldest day of the year im going to go out paddling just to blow some minds. People here act like 60* water and 55* air is cold. Silly californians, cold water is solid and cold air turns boiling water into snow before it hits the ground. anything else is balmy :)

  • @MCImes Yeah I grew up in the Wasatch mountains of Utah, and have lived in Norway, Michigan, and Wisconsin . So California cold seems pretty funny to me . A couple of years ago during a real cold snap it was snowing on the hill that drops down into Carlsbad CA, people were stopping their cars and getting out to look at the snow. My wife inherited her family's farm in a very cold valley in Utah; we will be headed back in a few weeks to make sure everything in the the main farmhouse, barns and sheds are OK so far this winter. It usually gets down to -20 F when we are there in January, I love the cold and snow in small doses, but it's great to come back to my sunny garden and a nice warm, non-solid ocean for a surf.

  • @SeaDart said:
    We are in the middle of a big pacific winter storm ( big for San Diego anyway). As it was approaching yesterday morning though, there were mild offshore winds and no swell whatsoever. Buoys were reading something like 6 inches. I went out for a SUP paddle up and down the coast in Lajolla. In the winter time I always dive under three or four waves to get adjusted to the "cold" water. Yesterday when I did this, there were no waves so I just dove under and swam for a few strokes and looked up out the water , which was crystal clear, I could see all the way along the surface of the water to what looked like the horizon, I've never seen a flatter calmer ocean here, and never had the same optical rush of seeing all the way to the edge of the earth on a sheet of calm, clear blue water. I paddled about three miles and as the storm started to come in some waves came too, and I surfed a bit and waited for the wind and the rain and wasn't disappointed. It was like watching those old time lapse movies from the 50s and 60s about the changes of nature, It only took about 2 hours to go from dead calm and blue skies to a nice raging rain storm on the water, huge black swirling clouds, and sheets of rain, and turbulence on the water surface. Of course I was the only nut out on the water enjoying the show. Real Californians think they will melt like the Wicked Witch of the East if rain touches them, even when wearing a wetsuit and hood.

    Sounds like it was one of those "appreciate nature" days. :)

    Funny observation about "real Californians...." LOL! We are in the teens this morning. I checked the cams at dawn. Behold... 3 NE surfers sitting out there on the break, waiting patiently for a waist high "whopper" to catch among the plethora of knee highs. That's serious fortitude... or DESPERATION!!!! Think I'll pass. Save the gas and wait for the arrival of the storm you just had. It's in Texas now and will pass through the mid-Atlantic into the ocean sometime in early part of next week. We should see some decent waves from that ocean storm later in the work week. I have time to line up my work schedule... :)

    sing

    "All I want for Christmas, is.... " :)

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