Here are some of the things to take into consideration in making a decision about going to the Rendezvous on the Buffalo this coming week.
Make a brutally honest evaluation of your paddling ability and equipment.
- Do you have a boat that is appropriate for a twisty river with high and fast running water?
- Do you have the skill to control your boat under such conditions, especially when coming face to face with rocks or strainers without lead time?
- Can you make these decisions virtually instantaneously?
- Are you skilled in rescue and self rescue procedures?
Study information from the National Weather Service including their Hazardous Weather Outlook, Flash Flood Watch, and their Hydrologic outlook. Here’s a link to that information http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ARZ012&warncounty=ARC101&firewxzone=ARZ012&local_place1=Ponca%20AR&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=36.0667&lon=-93.4012
Here is my summary of the latest National Weather Service information for the next week. I strongly suggest reading the information in the above link when making your decision on going to this Rendezvous. I added any boldface or italics
Note that from West to East the Buffalo River runs through Newton, Searcy, Marion, and Baxter counties (Ponca is Newton County)
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy- …-
Saturday Through Thursday
Severe thunderstorm chances will continue on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon to evening … Large hail and damaging winds will once again be the main threats, with an isolated tornado possible. The potential for heavy rainfall will also exist, increasing the concern for flash flooding and river flooding. Expect 3 to 5 inches over mainly the northwest and northern half of the state with isolated heavier amounts Saturday through Sunday.
The widespread and very heavy rain may produce life threatening flash flooding. Also, area river levels will rise, and some river flooding will be possible. Interests along area waterways and rivers should monitor the weather closely this weekend due to the threat of possible flooding.
Forecast details are still being fine tuned, including where the stationary front will set up today and Saturday, and the timing of the rounds of very heavy rain. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from your National Weather Service concerning this potentially serious situation.
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch National Weather Service Little Rock AR 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-…counties
254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING…
The Flash Flood Watch continues for … NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS, Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Marion, Newton, Searcy, counties.
From 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
Much of the northern half of Arkansas is forecast to receive anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday morning. Elsewhere in central parts of the state, two to four inches of rain will be possible. Locally heavier amounts will be seen, and a few spots, especially in north central to northwest Arkansas, may see rainfall amounts in excess of five to seven inches. With this types of rainfall amounts, river flooding and flash flooding will be likely.
Evacuations of flood and flash flood prone areas may be needed, and those interests along Arkansas rivers will need to monitor this developing hazardous weather situation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
If you are in the watch area, keep informed, and be ready for quick action if flash flooding is observed or if a warning is issued. Persons living in low lying areas along main-stem rivers should monitor the latest forecast and be ready to evacuate to higher ground.
Do not drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road to unknown depths. Take a different route to reach your destination or wait until the water recedes. Remember, most flood related deaths occur in automobiles and flooding is the leading cause of weather related deaths.
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Hydrologic Outlook
National weather service little rock ar 330 pm cst thu apr 27 2017
…multiple rounds of heavy rainfall this weekend will likely cause River flooding next week…
Moisture levels will increase significantly over the next few days In response to a warm front lifting over the area Friday. A slow Moving cold front will slowly move through the state on Saturday and Sunday with heavy rain expected. Storm total amounts by Monday Morning are forecasted to be one to three inches over southeast Arkansas…with three to five inches over a large portion of central Arkansas…**with five to seven inches possible over the Ozarks and Portions of north and northeast Arkansas.
**
**Considering streamflow on the Buffalo…Spring…Black and White River systems are still high from recent rain events…this area will be at the greatest threat for moderate to major flooding. **Rivers and streams in the Arkansas river basin will likely see minor To moderate river flooding.
If your weekend plans involve traveling across the state…please be Aware that area roads may become covered in water. Remember if you Come across a flooded roadway to turn around don’t drown.