I’m thinking that I will be able to make the Rendezvous this year - so hoping that it’s still a go.
I would suggest that folks stay tuned to this thread and keep an eye on the gauges through this weekend. If the NOAA precipitation predictions are correct and 7-8 inches of rain sweeps across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, it is quite possible that by early next week all of the usual venues (Current, Jacks Fork, North Fork (of White River) and the Buffalo will be at or above flood stage.
Yep, rivers are rolling. The Buffalo is closed right now, and if not yet, I would think Jacks, Current, etc. will follow. Tons of rain in the Ozarks and even here in STL But first paddle day for most of us is a week away. I know there is more rain to come but as fast as these rivers come up they also go down, hopefully we’ll have great water and not too much! Look forward to seeing everyone. The waterfalls will be pretty.
Here are some of the things to take into consideration in making a decision about going to the Rendezvous on the Buffalo this coming week.
Make a brutally honest evaluation of your paddling ability and equipment.
- Do you have a boat that is appropriate for a twisty river with high and fast running water?
- Do you have the skill to control your boat under such conditions, especially when coming face to face with rocks or strainers without lead time?
- Can you make these decisions virtually instantaneously?
- Are you skilled in rescue and self rescue procedures?
Study information from the National Weather Service including their Hazardous Weather Outlook, Flash Flood Watch, and their Hydrologic outlook. Here’s a link to that information http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ARZ012&warncounty=ARC101&firewxzone=ARZ012&local_place1=Ponca%20AR&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=36.0667&lon=-93.4012
Here is my summary of the latest National Weather Service information for the next week. I strongly suggest reading the information in the above link when making your decision on going to this Rendezvous. I added any boldface or italics
Note that from West to East the Buffalo River runs through Newton, Searcy, Marion, and Baxter counties (Ponca is Newton County)
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 500 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy- …-
Saturday Through Thursday
Severe thunderstorm chances will continue on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon to evening … Large hail and damaging winds will once again be the main threats, with an isolated tornado possible. The potential for heavy rainfall will also exist, increasing the concern for flash flooding and river flooding. Expect 3 to 5 inches over mainly the northwest and northern half of the state with isolated heavier amounts Saturday through Sunday.
The widespread and very heavy rain may produce life threatening flash flooding. Also, area river levels will rise, and some river flooding will be possible. Interests along area waterways and rivers should monitor the weather closely this weekend due to the threat of possible flooding.
Forecast details are still being fine tuned, including where the stationary front will set up today and Saturday, and the timing of the rounds of very heavy rain. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts from your National Weather Service concerning this potentially serious situation.
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch National Weather Service Little Rock AR 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-…counties
254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING…
The Flash Flood Watch continues for … NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS, Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Marion, Newton, Searcy, counties.
From 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
Much of the northern half of Arkansas is forecast to receive anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday morning. Elsewhere in central parts of the state, two to four inches of rain will be possible. Locally heavier amounts will be seen, and a few spots, especially in north central to northwest Arkansas, may see rainfall amounts in excess of five to seven inches. With this types of rainfall amounts, river flooding and flash flooding will be likely.
Evacuations of flood and flash flood prone areas may be needed, and those interests along Arkansas rivers will need to monitor this developing hazardous weather situation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
If you are in the watch area, keep informed, and be ready for quick action if flash flooding is observed or if a warning is issued. Persons living in low lying areas along main-stem rivers should monitor the latest forecast and be ready to evacuate to higher ground.
Do not drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road to unknown depths. Take a different route to reach your destination or wait until the water recedes. Remember, most flood related deaths occur in automobiles and flooding is the leading cause of weather related deaths.
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Hydrologic Outlook
National weather service little rock ar 330 pm cst thu apr 27 2017
…multiple rounds of heavy rainfall this weekend will likely cause River flooding next week…
Moisture levels will increase significantly over the next few days In response to a warm front lifting over the area Friday. A slow Moving cold front will slowly move through the state on Saturday and Sunday with heavy rain expected. Storm total amounts by Monday Morning are forecasted to be one to three inches over southeast Arkansas…with three to five inches over a large portion of central Arkansas…**with five to seven inches possible over the Ozarks and Portions of north and northeast Arkansas.
**
**Considering streamflow on the Buffalo…Spring…Black and White River systems are still high from recent rain events…this area will be at the greatest threat for moderate to major flooding. **Rivers and streams in the Arkansas river basin will likely see minor To moderate river flooding.
If your weekend plans involve traveling across the state…please be Aware that area roads may become covered in water. Remember if you Come across a flooded roadway to turn around don’t drown.
Maybe a day long High Tea is in order. Today the Buffalo actually had low water above Pruitt, but it changes so fast.
Low water crossings are lethal in high water.
I agree with Vic that everyone should know their own skill level, but I want to stress for anyone that is new to this group that we will NOT be getting on a flooded river or any overly high river., we all put safety first. We may have to wait a day or two for it to go down. Rain should be done Sunday, so fingers crossed that we can start paddling Wednesday or Thursday. The rest of the week doesn’t look too bad. Our plan is to still be there sometime Tuesday, unlike a lot of you that are retired and can vacation when ever I work for a small company and have to put vacation in at the beginning of the year, so come hell or high water (ha, ha) we’ll be there even if we don’t get to paddle everyday. Hope others make it, no matter what we seem to have a good time.
You forgot to say “God willing, and the creeks don’t rise.”
If the rain is pretty much done by Sunday afternoon, I think we will have a pretty good idea by 24 hours later what conditions will be like for the remainder of the week and following weekend. I was planning to drive down on Monday but will probably watch the gauges that day and hope to make the trip on Tuesday.
May be an opportunity to run that Boxley Valley section on Wednesday?
I’m already in Missouri - a long way from home. I was INTENDING to arrive at the Ozark campground on Monday morning, but now?? As I’m from somewhat “out of town” I’m not locally familiar enough with the area to know of possible alternative gathering/paddling locations. After driving from Alaska I’m not quite ready to just pack it in and head back home.
Driving down from Iowa, I had rain all morning, cleared somewhat just south of the Missouri border - but still a state away from the Buffalo. Higher water levels are still above my skill level… and I do have a new (to me) boat I picked up yesterday that I am anxious to paddle but in milder waters than a flooding Buffalo (or White or Current or …).
Brad
Well, I am perhaps being uncharacteristically optimistic, but I think there is a pretty reasonable chance that the Buffalo will be good by at least mid-week. It will likely be too high to paddle safely Monday, and perhaps Tuesday. There is a good chance of flooding on the Current, Jacks Fork, Eleven Point, and North Fork also, so there is no guaranteed safe haven.
I just got an email from Tom (Tazz) and Laurel indicating they plan to be at Ozark Campground Sunday night or Monday morning, in case you did not receive it.
We had plans to put in our appearance on Wednesday, and paddle on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Sunday was a possibility if all was going well. So, we still have 4 days to see how it plays out.
This is known…
JoAnne is not going to paddle a murky, high volume river; she doesn’t have the skills or desire to do that.
I won’t sit around a boggy campground, twiddling my thumbs. waiting for the river to drop.
So, we can’t commit to yea or nay at this point in time.
BOB
I’m planning on arriving Monday afternoon, Leaving Sunday from Madison, but plan on stopping at my cousin’s Distillery to pick up some of his Whiskey. Think it’s a good place to meet and then decide what to do - I’ve never been to Arkansas and want to go. Brad I like my water like you, hopefully we’ll find it! But no smart phone so once I leave home unless I find free internet, am unreachable.
Watching and waiting is, I think, the order of the day for me. I’m packed and ready to fly. It had been my intention to start the drive down there today with a newly constructed trailer - admittedly a long run for the maiden voyage of a new piece of equipment. The trailer won’t be ready until Monday afternoon and given water conditions perhaps that’s just as well. “Get the facts” is a worthy phrase to keep in mind before making any decision. This long a drive with untested equipment to get to a flooded river (from the looks of it several states worth of flooded rivers, in fact) is perhaps something that rises to the rank of being a decision, though ordinarily going paddling is something I think of as close to automatic.
I’ll decide Monday evening and probably be there Wed. if it looks like levels are dropping. Its tempting to just go and hang at the campfire with youse guys even if we couldn’t paddle, but this is a pretty long drive from Wisconsin and going that far for a simple camp out - even if it is with some of the nicest folks I’ve ever known - just doesn’t seem entirely prudent.
Best wishes to you Brad. Your journey is epic, but none of us controls the weather.
And its been a long time for you, too, Vikki. But perhaps your cousin’s distillery is just the place to watch weather reports. Best to all and hope to see you soon.
If (IF) this is a wash out perhaps we can figure out something later in the year.
Eric and I are coming down at dinner time Wednesday evening. Praying like crazy. I can’t wait to see everyone! Any potlucks planned?
Rena - will be good to see you both. We haven’t done a potluck in a while, we now do “High Tea” more snacks/dips/cheese, etc. and wine/beer/moonshine/whatever you drink. See ya next week be safe driving and watch for flooded roads!
I’ve decided to wait until Monday to leave, so Tuesday evening when I’ll arrive. Still630 I’m St Louis is the distillery.
I’ll keep a eye on the folks that arrive early…i can’t kayak till Friday and sat, but wouldn’t say my skill set is espn worthy! Is anyone just camping? I will pack my yak and if it’s lvl 3 rapids I’ll just hang out at campsite…would love to see some water falls and the ozark grand canyon…we are flooding here in mid missouri at the moment.
The Ponca gauge has not budged as yet and only about .19" of rain has fallen in the area. The bulk of the rain there is predicted for this afternoon and evening with relatively little on Sunday. What the gauge is doing by Sunday night should be some indication of what levels are likely to be next week.
The shit just hit the fan at Ponca and Jasper. Tornado warning expired at 5PM today for a radar indicated tornado just south of Jasper. Jasper is about 5 miles SSW of the Ozark Campground. The gauge at Ponca was reading 13,100 CFS at 5PM today. It had been at 680 CFS at 12:15 PM today. Flood stage is 2,070 CFS. More storms are forecast in the area through tomorrow morning. At 5PM today AccuWeather Radar shows strong thunderstorm over the area with at least two more bands of thunderstorms approaching the Ponca, Ozark Campground, and Jasper area.
I hope any folks in the area, including any early arrivals, are OK
This begs the question. Is the campground still there or full of debris. I know its up from the river but just a little. That is a horrible increase from noon and I hope everyone was off the river that might have floated today from Ponca.
http://www.buffaloriver.com/pages/floating/current-buffalo-river-level/