Well, I am perhaps being uncharacteristically optimistic, but I think there is a pretty reasonable chance that the Buffalo will be good by at least mid-week. It will likely be too high to paddle safely Monday, and perhaps Tuesday. There is a good chance of flooding on the Current, Jacks Fork, Eleven Point, and North Fork also, so there is no guaranteed safe haven.
I just got an email from Tom (Tazz) and Laurel indicating they plan to be at Ozark Campground Sunday night or Monday morning, in case you did not receive it.
We had plans to put in our appearance on Wednesday, and paddle on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Sunday was a possibility if all was going well. So, we still have 4 days to see how it plays out.
This is known…
JoAnne is not going to paddle a murky, high volume river; she doesn’t have the skills or desire to do that.
I won’t sit around a boggy campground, twiddling my thumbs. waiting for the river to drop.
So, we can’t commit to yea or nay at this point in time.
I’m planning on arriving Monday afternoon, Leaving Sunday from Madison, but plan on stopping at my cousin’s Distillery to pick up some of his Whiskey. Think it’s a good place to meet and then decide what to do - I’ve never been to Arkansas and want to go. Brad I like my water like you, hopefully we’ll find it! But no smart phone so once I leave home unless I find free internet, am unreachable.
Watching and waiting is, I think, the order of the day for me. I’m packed and ready to fly. It had been my intention to start the drive down there today with a newly constructed trailer - admittedly a long run for the maiden voyage of a new piece of equipment. The trailer won’t be ready until Monday afternoon and given water conditions perhaps that’s just as well. “Get the facts” is a worthy phrase to keep in mind before making any decision. This long a drive with untested equipment to get to a flooded river (from the looks of it several states worth of flooded rivers, in fact) is perhaps something that rises to the rank of being a decision, though ordinarily going paddling is something I think of as close to automatic.
I’ll decide Monday evening and probably be there Wed. if it looks like levels are dropping. Its tempting to just go and hang at the campfire with youse guys even if we couldn’t paddle, but this is a pretty long drive from Wisconsin and going that far for a simple camp out - even if it is with some of the nicest folks I’ve ever known - just doesn’t seem entirely prudent.
Best wishes to you Brad. Your journey is epic, but none of us controls the weather.
And its been a long time for you, too, Vikki. But perhaps your cousin’s distillery is just the place to watch weather reports. Best to all and hope to see you soon.
If (IF) this is a wash out perhaps we can figure out something later in the year.
Rena - will be good to see you both. We haven’t done a potluck in a while, we now do “High Tea” more snacks/dips/cheese, etc. and wine/beer/moonshine/whatever you drink. See ya next week be safe driving and watch for flooded roads!
I’ll keep a eye on the folks that arrive early…i can’t kayak till Friday and sat, but wouldn’t say my skill set is espn worthy! Is anyone just camping? I will pack my yak and if it’s lvl 3 rapids I’ll just hang out at campsite…would love to see some water falls and the ozark grand canyon…we are flooding here in mid missouri at the moment.
The Ponca gauge has not budged as yet and only about .19" of rain has fallen in the area. The bulk of the rain there is predicted for this afternoon and evening with relatively little on Sunday. What the gauge is doing by Sunday night should be some indication of what levels are likely to be next week.
The shit just hit the fan at Ponca and Jasper. Tornado warning expired at 5PM today for a radar indicated tornado just south of Jasper. Jasper is about 5 miles SSW of the Ozark Campground. The gauge at Ponca was reading 13,100 CFS at 5PM today. It had been at 680 CFS at 12:15 PM today. Flood stage is 2,070 CFS. More storms are forecast in the area through tomorrow morning. At 5PM today AccuWeather Radar shows strong thunderstorm over the area with at least two more bands of thunderstorms approaching the Ponca, Ozark Campground, and Jasper area.
I hope any folks in the area, including any early arrivals, are OK
This begs the question. Is the campground still there or full of debris. I know its up from the river but just a little. That is a horrible increase from noon and I hope everyone was off the river that might have floated today from Ponca. http://www.buffaloriver.com/pages/floating/current-buffalo-river-level/
I do have a friend from the northeast who planned to meet a group today who were staying at a private campground near Jasper. I will try phoning him tomorrow and see if he has any information.
Major flooding of the Buffalo this weekend was pretty much a given unless the NOAA forecast had turned out to be an epic fail. I suspect the river will still be in flood come Monday. The key is when and how high the river peaks and how quickly it starts to come down. There is relatively little rain predicted for the area tomorrow according to the forecasts I have seen. If the Ponca gauge peaks and has started down come early Monday morning, I would suspect the river should be at a manageable level no later than mid-week.
If the info we receive from Pete’s friend is that Ozark campground was badly washed (and, like Kim I don’t recall it being real high above the river) perhaps Erbie could be a backup. Though the road in there was long and rough, and there’s a spot where water washes over it, as I recall it was a nice campground and at the same level as the johns, which were maybe 20 ft. over river level.
But over six times flood stage flow is some very serious flooding. Wouldn’t you guys expect some possibly humongous log jams in the aftermath of such an occurrence? Even if the river is manageable it would take some time for those to be cleared, wouldn’t it? Not to be negative… you guys who paddle there regularly would know best. Perhaps that is a more routine situation down there and folks are better at handling clean-up than they would be around here? Or perhaps jams aren’t as much a problem because more frequent flooding keeps the floodplain freer of the buildup than we’re used to up here?
Hope Brad (and Anita if she’s there yet) was camped high and out of the path of tornadoes.
I would hope that the NPS has a handle on how high the river has to get to flood Ozark Campground. NPS did close Tyler Bend and Buffalo Point campgrounds due to the threat of flooding but as yet has not closed others.
Wood is always a possible hazard after high water, although very high water often clears out a lot of wood.
As of right now, the gauge at Boxley has peaked and is starting down and the gauge at Ponca has just peaked, but more weather is headed toward the Ponca area for later tonight, so I would expect it to go back up again by morning. Ponca has received about 2.7" of rain and Boxley about 3.3".
Hi from TX…calf injury is healing nicely and planning to come and arriving Tue pm…w/ all that of the recent rain and bringing my small travel trailer…plan on staying at Dogwood RV campground in Jasper (road trek going/coming .to the Ozark campground may be marginal pulling the trailer…and I am heading on up to WI to spend summer again as a volunteer on the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway and then as a Lighthouse Keeper on the Apostle Islands)…will plan to meet up w/ all of you Wed, Thu, And Fri early ams for the daily runs…plans now to attend the WW school on the Mulberry for a weekend school event sponsored by the AR Canoe Club possibly If there is adequate water on the Mulberry…any of you folks attended this yearly program? If it does not make…then I will get to stay there on the Buffalo for the rest of the weekend…just check the latest weather…and it looks like rain only on Wed 90% and Thu 80% w/o thunderstorms…will not mind paddling in the rain…then rest of weekend looks good!! Looking forward to seeing all of you…Earl, I hope you make it w/ your family…will plan on coming in early to the Ozark Campground early Wed am to meet up by 0800…anyone interested in coming into Jasper for a hearty breakfast at the Ozark Cafe in Jasper…if so, then I can meet up there w/ some of you…I think I got PJC’s attention w/ that invite for early breakfast time!! See you all soon!! Anita from TX
I have decided to take a pass and not go to the Buffalo River this week for the Spring Rendezvous
I will be 70 at my next birthday with some health conditions. I am not as physically able as I was five years ago. My reaction time (both physically and mentally) is slower, my stamina has declined, and it takes me longer to recover from injury or fatigue. I was still limping from back pain four weeks after my struggle with the take out at Hasty last year. Taking this into consideration I don’t believe my canoeing skills are good enough for what appears will be high water conditions on the Upper Buffalo. In addition for me the 7 or 8 hour drive each way to the Buffalo means two days travel. I can’t safely spend that much time behind the wheel in one day
So I am taking a pass this week.
I look forward to seeing you at the Fall Rendezvous on the Current River in Missouri from Thursday, October 12 to Sunday, October 16. Since I will be in the Ozarks on Boys of Fall from September 30 to October 7, I am now planning to be at Pultite on Sunday, October 8 for Fall Rendezvous week. Hope to see you then.
Meanwhile, for you folks doing the Buffalo this week: watch the river conditions, be smart, be honest with yourself, be safe, make good decisions, and have fun.
Oh yeah, take plenty of pictures (if it is safe to do so) and post them. I’ll pay one “Bob Dollah” for each photo
Wow, is it that fast! Well, my skills aren’t more than what the Current River has offer. Love my little riffles and quiet water. If there are any change of plans of different area to paddle please advise. I’ve gotten room reservation at spa in Hot Springs AR for the Monday after so want to come down. Maybe now I’ll postpone to leave on Tuesday to arrive Wednesday. But am coming down if just to admire the beauty
According to my friend Bill, Ozark Campground is empty (except for a camp host) but otherwise fine. Some low lying campsites near the river flooded, but the rest of the campground is dry.
The three gauges on the upper Buffalo have all peaked and have been on a downward trajectory since this morning. They are all well below the peak levels they reached this past Wednesday. In fact, as I type this the Boxley Valley section is running at what is considered to be an optimal level. The river is still closed at Ponca and Pruitt and levels remain high there, but the gauges are dropping sharply and the Ponca section should be doable no later than Tuesday, and possibly even tomorrow, if the gauges continue their present rate of decline, which they should do since there is no more rain in the forecast prior to Tues PM at the earliest.
I suspect that by Wednesday the river should be at a decent level. Rain is predicted for Wednesday, but it looks as if it will be spotty with accumulations of 1/2 inch or less.
@Vic said:
I look forward to seeing you at the Fall Rendezvous on the Current River in Missouri from Thursday, October 12 to Sunday, October 16. Since I will be in the Ozarks on Boys of Fall from September 30 to October 7, I am now planning to be at Pultite on Sunday, October 8 for Fall Rendezvous week. Hope to see you then.
I wasn’t planning on being at the Spring Rendevous, but I am planning on the fall trip. Is this going to be the date? Us retired folks get such a busy schedule that I need a lot of advanced planning! I also have some friends who are still working and need to plan vacation. I had thought it was generally between the second and third weekend.
