There’s a fine line between adventure and folly. At one time, I enjoyed hiking and camping in below freezing weather. That strong sense of resilience develops from an ability to cope. When you try to tamp down someone’s sense of adventure, you’re probably speaking to deaf ears. I don’t feel smarter because I don’t go out on the ice to paddle, just less adventurous. Each person must be allowed to manage his or her own adventure. I still enjoy battling wind and waved, but appreciate flat water more.
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Thank you TomL for providing a starting point for bottom rung paddlers (small-water, flat-water entry-level paddlers who are trying to do a little bit better than before). Most online advice seems to be aimed at paddlers who are heading into no-brainer, dangerously cold & wet conditions, such as surf-ski, white water, and ocean paddlers. If a wetsuit and drysuit are the only items offered in advice, as they often are, then folks who don’t think of themselves as hardcore will blow past them and continue in their old ways.
This is my 4th winter in SE Michigan and I’ve been dressing for air temp and I’ve never been close to falling in, but I’ve begun reading up on immersion. Frightening stuff! The case studies on coldwatersafety.org are especially illuminating, so I want to get smarter.
I quickly found the entry-level items TomL mentioned, and they were a starting point to find a long sleeve wetsuit top and a full leg wetsuit bottom to replace my old base layer. Cheapos are about $40 apiece, and I can layer my existing stuff over them, at least for now. I’m sure I’ll fill in more “smart” stuff as time goes on and I’ll also get something for head, hands and feet that will give me a little more time to get out of the creek.
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I don’t paddle with my hood (vest) up on my head but if I end up in cold water I’d pull it up. Also, I tucked a cashmere scarf 
inside the neck of my layers of neoprene and find my neck much more comfortable and blood flow unrestricted.
If I end up in the water, that would go but it sure makes it comfortable topside to paddle.
I like the cheap neoprene pants and jacket layered under my wetsuit.
We have a surf shop in town that sells wetsuits for Lake Michigan surfers but they are all thick and one piece and when I said I can’t handle thick wetsuits for canoeing the clerk recommended that I buy inexpensive separate tops and bottoms from Amazon like she did (I think she was a paddler). Cheap neoprene feels just like expensive neoprene to me.
@RiverWay - I’ve never fallen in in 30 years of solo paddling except for the one time in your area on a group new years day paddle when a big group launched and fallen trees had blocked the unscouted route and bad things happened. But I’ve had my paddle jammed against sunken trees many times where bad luck could also just eject you from your boat like it did to my buddy one time on the Huron. I’ve had other very unusual things happen (branches falling on me, almost hit a swimming deer, almost hit by a jumping fish, many random deflections off sunken objects, etc)…I think one just doesn’t know what strange things can happen. On my last paddle before the deep freeze I realized the river current was getting pretty healthy after some rain (St Joseph was running 4500 cfs) and there are sections where you’d have to swim for hundreds of yards to get out so even a drysuit seemed only “probably good enough”. Per jyak’s point I was flirting with folly.
I’d like to paddle with you some time. We lived in Ann Arbor for 20 years. I’d be happy to show you some of my favorite spots.
@MohaveFlyer - I also have a synthetic vest with attached neoprene hood that I wear under a neoprene top sometimes for extra protection and I also leave the hood down but like having it in case of emergency. I also like having something comfy on my neck. I like layering with neoprene and synthetics since you can adjust your warmth…I had 6 or 7 layers last time out. Plus it’s good exercise just getting ready to paddle in cold weather. 
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-23f this morning at my house. -36 in Riverton.
But we are supposed to start an upward trend now. I’d expect we are now past the coldest days and nights. Usually by the end of the 3rd week of Jan our lowest temps are past us. Not that Feb is warm, but it’s usually better then January and mid December.
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Sure that’s cold, but it’s a dry cold. 
You never know what to expect in SW MI with average high temps around freezing most of the winter, but we often achieve those averages through wild variations in temp. So the ground was still soft up until about 5 days ago. Then about 4 days with -20 windchill and continuous (mostly lake-effect) snow. Next week temps are supposed to go above freezing for the rest of January so with the hard ground and snow build-up I expect that the rivers will just explode. Lake Michigan looked incredibly spooky yesterday with the water near shore being not-quite dead still but not ice but not normal water either.
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Yes I saw “that water!”
It looks “thick” and heavy, glassy.
I wonder how that variable plays with buoyancy.
Not minus seven: https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohio-person-trapped-kayak-little-miami-river-rescued-training/46471226
Gotta wonder if that is with or without windchill though.
Whelp. This morning I looked at the temperature (5°) and said to myself: if it gets up to 20, I’ll go paddling. So I guess that’s my answer to the OP’s question.
I would quit if the water got hard, but I live in Florida and that doesn’t happen. In other words I am ignorant of reasons to not go paddling.