No Reprieve - Helene On The Way

Interestingly, TVA didn’t start significantly relieving upstream flood pressure until after the storm hit. This is why we have them. Flood control.

It was pretty clear from the consistent QPFs and the previously stalled front that the orientation of the storm was setup for disaster. IMO, they should have been opening spillways and lowering upstream water levels aggressively days before. But as a federal agency, they really have no incentive to make such optimizations.

Before the TVA dam system, flooding in the tennessee valley was quite common. It is a very rare event now, so kudos to the wisdom of that project, even if it is not optimally managed.
But even in a 100yr flood event, well…that doesn’t mean it will never happen.

I would add, my local outfitter, River Sports Outfitters, signed up as a supply distro point. Another reason to shop local whenever you can. I have a buddy in Asheville who is trapped due to the road situation but they are sharing one guy’s generator and occasional cell service. Blessings and recovery to all affected

Asheville sits in the bottom of a bowl–so you were wise to warn. It is a high risk area, always has been and always will be. Man-made disaster in the sense that we shouldn’t be subsidizing insurance with taxpayer funds for people who choose to build in such areas. National Flood Insurance Program: Fiscal Exposure Persists Despite Property Acquisitions | U.S. GAO

As for rising levels of water, that’s just not supported by observation, which. to wit, even someone of average intelligence can understand.
The trends have been stable for a century and well before any CO2 increases, which has still not even been linked to the temperature trends. Linked to the climate models, but they have never verified–not once.
As for local effects from rainfall, one cannot look at just the inputs–you also have to look at the development impacts–the runoff and drainage patterns are paramount in water management. Cities have lots of concrete, horizontal impervious surfaces, etc.
For long-term and more steady state changes not localized, example even if an anecdote, but a representative one.

Back to my ranch. 3 days with no power but it’s warm . We’re told we’ll have power by Friday.The animals and I are comfortable and my wife is spending the nights with our daughter. We are eating whatever is thawed. That leads to an interesting menu. Resembles camping.
We are very fortunate that the oaks surrounding us decided to stay rooted.
Many were not as fortunate .
A week in the dark night is beginning to get old. Good thing we don’t have bears.

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Power was restored last evening. Clean up continues.

Here we go again. I am the blue dot in this image, Milton is heading directly towards us. Hurricane shutters are going back on tomorrow.


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Good luck!

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That’s horrible. Fingers crossed it fizzles into a weak. tropical storm.

Good luck down there. Looks like Milton will intensify to a “major” category before landfall. Heed the warnings.

-sing

Right up the I-4 corridor. I’m 5 miles from I-4, just north of Orlando.
Will you evacuate, Kevin?

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I should not be at risk of flooding. My current plan is put the hurricane shutters on and ride it out although the 5:00p update just said that it could become a cat 4 so I will keep an eye on the forecast and evacuate if that is what is called for.
One thing for sure, no canoeing this week. :frowning:
The barrier islands really took a hit from Helene, non-residents are still not allowed to to drive there. I was able to paddle over to Turtle Beach from the mainland to check it out. It was a mess. the sand on the side of the road looked like snowbanks.
Thanks for the good luck whishes.
Uploading: Turtle_Beach_Sand.jpg…


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That boat will float again soon. The forecast is for an even bigger storm surge than Helene. Stay safe.

Edit: Cat 4 already. Uh oh.

Wow… Hurricane Milton morphed into a cat 5 in 24 hours. Folks, some serious stuff heading for major landfall…

sing