Usually kinda close - -
what drives our house wild is that the tornado warnings etc are about an hour behind.
Watching the weather report on a Cleveland channel seems to show what just went through.
We rely on looking outside, Listening, and www.intellicast.com - radar summary.
One problem we see on Lake Erie is that boaters don’t wattch what happens out on Lake Erie. Erie is real shallow (for a great lake) on the western end, so when a storm is coming in on the horizon, you need to get off the water “NOW”. Things happen fast. One minute it’s glass smooth, and 10 minutes later you have 4 to 6 ft waves, and guys in 16 foot v hull aluminum boats trying to stay afloat.
I knew one fishing charter operator who always joked about needing more horsepower on his boat. He always joked about not being more than 15 minutes from any harbor. I found out on one trip with him. We could see what we thought was a storm brewing up toward Detroit, I was fishing way up on the bow (whatever the overhang is). He had been listening to the radio, but nothing unusual was mentioned. All of a sudden he hollers to reel em in while we get started. We were in 1 to 2 foot rollers when we took off, so I sat down on the bow overhang and through my gear down the front hatch and closed it up.
Within 10 minutes and 2 miles out, we were in 6 footers with white caps and full throtle out of the twin chevy 350’s. Needless to say it was a good thing I was a lot younger then as my behind was pounded relentlessly for the rest of the trip in.
Gives new meaning to learning the hard way.
Rant alert!
I can read synoptic charts. When offshore, I carry a barometer and keep my eyes on the surface winds and winds aloft. Without a radio forecast, I have done reasonably well.
I have also used commercial forecast services the windsurfers use- the Columbia River Gorge also being a great kayak surfing downwind run.
With all that said, I gotta say NOAA absolutely amazes me. Often it is more accurate than the commercial forecasts (take that, Sen Santorum!). The point forecasts are excellent, the rapidity of updates…wow.
Did I mention I keep a log book, and can verify a lot of my opinion?
So, where is the rant?
How about this. On another thread was a topic about sea kayaks vs touring kayaks. I would suggest that it aint the boat, it is the boater. Most sea kayakers seamanship- and that includes understanding weather- is about as good as a shot of novocaine into the frontal lobes.
Understanding a forecast also means understanding local topography and the effect on small scale weather, amongst other things.
Douge and salty, I’m in with you.
karl
Thunderstorms are always tricky
There has neven been an easy way to forecast thundershowers. The problem is that one can determine where conditions are ripe for convection but you cannot say exactly where the storms will pop up. Spacially they occupy only a small fraction of most forecast regions and frequently it is cloud-free between storms. That is why the forecast often says a “chance” or “risk”. But if you happen to be in a place where they do not form, you can have a sunny day! I always thought an appropriate forecast would be “Mainly sunny. Chance of a thundershower.” But that would just invite ridicule from the uninformed.
Russian Meteorologist
Government needs to start a program similair to the one they adopted in Russia this past winter.The people were so fed up with bad forecasts the government started to fine Meteorologist’s for incorrect forecasts.