Read the study. It also refers to mask mandates.
I read the article; the study is 62 pages. If you tell me where it talks about masks I will read it.
Also good research analysis.
But, apples to apples, or oranges to oranges.
Lockdown mandates is not the same as mask mandates. These are different strategies.
Again, I don’t really don’t care what folks want to do/react to the research data. But, science is based on data and not conjecture/opinion. Sometimes data is wrong, but it gets refuted by other data or data analysis.
sing
I am not going to read the paper for you.
Here is an excerpt from it:
“Today, it remains an open question as to whether lockdowns have had a large, significant effect
on COVID-19 mortality. We address this question by evaluating the current academic literature
on the relationship between lockdowns and COVID-19 mortality rates. We use “NPI” to
describe any government mandate which directly restrict peoples’ possibilities. Our definition
does not include governmental recommendations, governmental information campaigns, access
to mass testing, voluntary social distancing, etc., but do include mandated interventions such as
closing schools or businesses, mandated face masks etc. We define lockdown as any policy
consisting of at least one NPI as described above.”
The paper considers the effects of all mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including mandated face masks.
I am pretty familiar with “science” having two BS degrees with three majors (advanced biology, chemistry, biochemistry) and an MD degree as well as being published in peer reviewed scientific journals.
The problem here is that individuals seek out the particular “science” that supports their confirmation bias. This pandemic has, from the start, been profoundly affected by regional population densities, demographics, prevailing climate, and geographical factors and now vaccine availablility that has influenced its trajectory of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in different areas at different times.
And mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions, where implemented, have almost never been limited to one particular intervention. Mask mandates were almost always accompanied by other mandates such as closure of “non-essential” businesses, school closures, limitations on indoor capacities at stores, even closure of outdoor parks and recreational facilities. It becomes virtually impossible to realistically assess the impact of any particular type of mandate because it is impossible to control for all of the confounding factors.
Never asked you to. Only thought since you seem to have read it, you might point me to the part about masks. Thanks.
I can offer you the “Cliff Notes” version. The paper is admittedly difficult to wade through.
The one NPI that this study looked at that seemed to have some impact on covid-19 mortality was closure of bars which was associated with a reduced mortality on the order of 10%.
But John Campbell does a pretty credible job of critiquing this paper, including a discussion of its limitations in this video.
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Thanks pblanc.
People are free to believe what they wish. I dodn’t try to influence anyone. Used to be a free country. If you got your shots, you were safe. No more mask. This current pack of hounds are all over the chart. They claimed a vaccine couldn’t be made so quickly. Then they refused to take it, until sworn in then they got shots of something. Claimed credit for saving the country, poo pooed every doctor who had success treating with certain drugs, and made the cheap drugs illegal, despite. They make us get vaccinated or be fired, can’t get on a plane, can’t go to church, but it’s OK to riot. I need a special driver’s license with a pint of blood to get on a plane, a border crossed can’t be made to get the shot, but uses a court order to appear to get on a plane after being held in a incubation tank. The heros who treated us, caught it, have natural immunity are FIRED and demonized. Get your double dose and you’re safe, no get another booster. Maybe one every 10 weeks. But why do they people who got double and triple shots still get sick. Foochie has his paw prints all over it. Masks work, font eork, wear two, maybe three, no they’re good, not good. Maybe wear forever, elbow bump. Wear them on the beach.
When we talk, atomized spittle sprays several feet around the talker. Surgical masks contain that spittle. Those masks are not adequate for woodworking because the fabric doesn’t trap the most damaging particles. They don’t filter bacteria. They don’t filter bacteria and sure don’t filter virus. My daughter and son in law were fitted for their N95 masks. You don’t pop them out of a tissue box and hang them off your chin.
There are hearings going on from whistle blowers. Be careful about dying on you sword backing this drivel. Once written . . . Hard to retract. This story will go down in history as a criminal cluster. Like that clown in NY who killed all those people in assisted living and laughed with his dim witted clown brother.
Thanks. That was interesting but it didn’t say anything regarding masks. Anyway my opinion is that since the pandemic is constantly evolving, so is thought about what to do. I’m only very sad that it’s become such a political morass, when I feel sure 99.99 % of people don’t want others to die needless deaths. Imagine how great it would be if we could all have a common enemy: the virus, and not each other.
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Unfortunately, even the CDC has been somewhat complicit in promoting a particular narrative and suppressing information from scientists that conflicts with it.
Regarding masks, it has been known since before the pandemic that cloth masks had filtration efficiencies for ultra-fine particles and aerosols that made them all but useless for preventing transmission of viral disease via aerosols. But the CDC, including its current director, promoted the use of cloth masks as being effective because “covid-19 is primarily transmitted via droplets” and maintained this position well into the Summer of 2020. This despite the fact that very credible and experienced epidemiologists and virologists, including Michael Osterholm who has studied communicable diseases in general, and the coronavirus pandemics of SARS and MERS specifically, were saying the SARS-Cov-2 was certainly being transmitted via aerosols from the very get-go.
Even now the CDC still mentions the possible use of two-layer cloth masks on their website despite the fact the these masks have a filtration efficiency for small aerosols of 18% or less. The World Health Organization went even further in saying, a good month into the pandemic in China, that there was no evidence for human-to-human spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Statements such as these, including the initial position from both organizations that origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the WIV was “exceedingly unlikely” have resulted in an unfortunate erosion of public trust in governmental and international agencies’ ability to manage this pandemic.
It would be immensely beneficial to have an international scientific analysis of which measures have been effective in blunting the impact of this pandemic and which measures have not had a benefit outweighing their adverse consequences, because there will be other pandemics in the future. Unfortunately, the situation has become so politicized both nationally and internationally that I doubt there will be any sincere attempt to do so.
I applaud the Johns Hopkins paper despite its limitations since I view it as an honest attempt to balance the benefit (if any) of mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions against their costs, economic, societal, psychological, and physical. There really haven’t been any prior attempts to do this to my knowledge.
I’m in general agreement. It’s a shame that so many politicians attempt to use science (or non-science) for political ends.
Back to paddling: I’m bummed I haven’t been able to attend a Greenland paddling symposium since I got my SOF kayak; yet I feel lucky enough to still be able to paddle at all.
Doggy_Paddler, when there’s a will, there is definitely a way. You’ll get there. I have faith in you’re resourcefulness. We’ll come out of this distorted mess. People will sort it out, because the leaders are busy just amassing power and control. You can only hold people down so long. I feel for the Chinese, Australians and the now the Canadians. Just need to sort it out.
The paper trail is too long. My experience with studying events and incidents tells me there is nothing consistent about this disease. The duplicity, contradictions, disclosed falsehoods, money trails, emails, warnings made by key players predicting such horrors, the string of other viruses connected to the lab, the lie about the wet markets and the reopening of the markets. China would never have let them reopen. The leaked info from doctors in the labs and their disappearance. There isn’t enough time to matrix the deception. All I needed was to hear
The master of disguise in Canada say it’s a great opportunity to restructure society. Ask Australia how they like their restructured society. I don’t care what anyone does. I wear the mask so some psycho doesn’t stab me. Notice how the ones who advocate masks don’t wear them when non-party members aren’t around.
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My reflections on the pandemic? It’s history. I got vaxed, boosted, got covid with mild symptoms, quarantined, tested negative and returned to normal behavior. I do follow the rules, and in Hawaii that means showing your id and covid card before entering eateries and hotels. It also means wearing a mask in public spaces that are inside. It is all designed to keep covid out and encourage people to get vaxed. Getting tested every 48 hours would be pretty inconvenient (the other way to enter eateries and hotels). Admirable goals are trying to be met.
My own thoughts are that omicron is very transmissible, that as long as they keep flyin’ in tourists, you ain’t keepin’ covid out. My own son says omicron is a gift. A less severe form of the virus that will help us reach herd immunity. He likes controversy.
The west virginia wildwater association has resumed regular functions. We have club events on the calendar. I’ve been doing open invitation trips on the message board for almost a year. I wear a mask on shuttles if people want me to. I realize for some people that covid is not over. For the unvaxed there are still significant risks. For folks that have lost a loved one, or are still suffering physical distress from covid, I’m sure the pandemic is still very real.
I’m very much a sheep. You tell me what I’m supposed to do and I do it. In terms of my own safety, I’m feelin’ pretty bullet proof. For me personally, covid is in my rear view mirror.
How well did mitigation strategies work? For me, they worked well. I do know I didn’t get the virus until after being vaccinated and boosted and suffered just mild symptoms. If I had gotten very sick I suspect that treatment would have been far better than at the beginning of the pandemic. At no time did I consider injecting bleach as a preventative measure but did “just wear my dam# mask” as big Jim, my governor in WV, suggested.
I got no thoughts on restructuring society unless it involves giving everyone a free boat or requiring pfd use. I’m just not very bright or deep thinking. Time to go enjoy some nature.
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Sorry jyak but that is not the case. My orchestra started rehearsals again three weeks ago and my chorus that started in September and had to stop in early November will be resuming in March if the numbers keep doing what they are. We all wear masks in rehearsals, even with everyone vaccinated and at this point also boosted. It is a matter of how many people are in one place - these rehearsals are enough that masks are not yet optional.
We also specified KN95 or N95 masks as of January, thanks to the increased transmissibility of the omicron virus.
One of the players that goes over in our car pool is a student at a College with masks required on campus at all times. We wear masks when she is in the car unless we get explicit permission not to. The last Board meeting - a hybrid of Zoom and in person - anyone physically present was fully masked as we were at the one a month prior.
I usher at a local music hall that restarts live performances this week. And have attended three classical music concerts since the beginning of January. The audience is fully masked in all these scenarios. Strings are fully masked and still playing on separate stands. There are masking complications for the winds - they are either masked or taking at times daily CoVid tests if they feel they cannot play with the mask. Same for another classical music group in western Mass just over the border in western Massachusetts.
Admit that my occasional trio dropped the masks - in the context that we are all three vaxxed and boosted and at least one of us is testing twice weekly since Christmas.
There are venues where mask habits are at best hard to discern, like in restaurants. But around my area the servers are still masked.
I have heard from a lot of people that my area is better on masks than most other places they go. This is likely correct. But the fact remains some of the more negligent behaviors are not universal.
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My approach has been much the same as yours.
I did pretty severely curtail, but not completely eliminate contact with others until vaccines became available and their efficacy was demonstrated. I figured that if I was with a small group of individuals who I could trust to be responsible enough to isolate themselves if they had symptoms consistent with SARS-CoV-2 infection, that I was at pretty low risk of acquiring the disease. Since I am retired, I had no obligatory contact with others in the workplace.
I have said things about this pandemic for two years now which have caused some people to shake their heads in pity as they thought they were indications that I was insane. These have included saying that I thought it was quite likely that this virus originated as a result of biological engineering gone bad at the WIV. This was at a time when China was still pushing the false narrative that it originated in bats at a “wet market” and the WHO was playing ball with them.
I said that an effective vaccine would be available by the Spring of 2021 when some were claiming that an effective vaccine against coronavirus would take at least 12 years to develop and might never become available. As it turns out, effective vaccines became widely available months earlier than I though they might.
I have maintained, and still do, that the adaptive immunity achieved through prior infection was likely stronger and more durable than that achieved through vaccination. There is now very solid data to suggest that it true. And our government still discounts the value of immunity achieved through prior confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2.
I said that the virus would almost certainly become endemic at a time when the conventional wisdom, including that of the government was that the pandemic could be “snuffed out”.
I felt from the onset that I would almost certainly eventually be exposed to this virus in time. I hoped that would be after effective vaccines and other mitigation options became available. Once vaccinated I came to believe that the sooner this happened, perhaps the better. People do not typically become healthier with age. They become less active, more sedentary, less fit, and less immunocompetant. And the acquired immunity achieved through vaccination is likely limited in durability.
I also maintained that the best strategy for dealing with this pandemic might be to allow healthy individuals at low risk for serious disease who did not have regular contact with individuals at high risk to go about their business without any mandated restrictions so long as medical facilities were not overwhelmed. I reasoned this would allow us to acquire sufficient community adaptive immunity to achieve herd immunity sooner rather than later. This was the assertion that seemed most likely to have others regard me as a lunatic.
I also maintained that evolutionary pressure would at some point result in a virus mutation that was more transmissible but less lethal. Viruses that kill their hosts do not propagate as well as those that do not. I agree with your son regarding the omnicron variant. It has offered us the best opportunity thus far, apart from vaccination, of achieving a degree of herd immunity sufficient to render this virus endemic with a minimum cost in deaths.
I have not seen any reason to doubt the validity of any of these statements or positions thus far.
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King of all virus is .06-.14 microns. HEPA filter goes down to .01 microns. N95 filters 95% down to .3. Shazam. I cain’t figure this out. I’m referencing the wrong propaganda. I’m sure they don’t have to be fitted. I guess it’s like being a little pregnant. I never told anybody not to get a shot or not to wear a mask.
I’m disgusted by how people praised nurses, first responders and public setvants who risked their life, got sick when nothing was known and acquired natural immunity. Now the brave souls are fired and we argue about microns.
I’m too ignorant to discuss this further.
Your papers please! Your papers. They are not in order . . . You come with me - take him. If he resists . . . No, you will not resist.
Trying to understand a border crosser being put on a plane after being exposed in a holding pen with other who have a 20% infection rate. Yet people in Australia are arrested for leaving home. The answer is nobody cares what happens in Texas or Florida. People in New York and Maryland are OK with it. We got dust masks.
FWIW (or actually a situation of who really cares anymore?), just another data analysis review:
sing