still sounds risky
Otterslide, there is obviously a lot of knowledge and experience behind your post. If I were on a trip with you and others who think like you, I’m sure I would follow your orders to raft up without a second thought. And I think it would turn out for the best.
However, in the circumstances proposed by the OP, or the more detailed scenario I specified (group of 6 with 2 exper, 2 intermed, and 2 relatively weak paddlers), I’m still not sold. I fear the attempt may trigger disaster, especially for the weak paddlers.
This is a group that has come together for the first time by membership in the club, without much experience of each other. Some may be overconfident; some may be of the opinion that one should never raft up in rough seas. Likely the idea was never discussed among them until the storm was brewing and the leader came by and said “Everybody stay together - if it gets real bad, we’ll need to raft up.” The seas grow rougher and the wind continually increases, each wave is a little bigger than the last. So far, no one has capsized - even the weak paddlers have a fair amount of experience with observing waves and bracing and keeping themselves afloat, although by now it is taking all of their efforts to do so.
And then, at that point, the leader gives the order to turn into the wind and raft up - then he stands off and waits for the group to do it, whereupon he will be the last to join. That sounds to me like a recipe for capsizing one or both of the weak paddlers, and/or having one or both of the intermediates set off alone, never having bought the raft-up idea themselves.
You say “Try rafting up, as it may be your only hope.” But it’s not. This is a sudden onset storm, and it’s likely to be of short duration. Any minute now, the weather could start to improve. So far, everybody has kept upright, all we need to do is hang on for a little while longer.
The bottom line of all this, I think, is that the sea kayak community needs to have a lot more discussions like this. The experts need to reach some concensus on questions like this, and then publicize those conclusions, and then test them out both in practice and in real life, and publicize the results.
The slightly older (and probably less complicated, and certainly far more numerous) whitewater community has done this over the last 40-50 years, so that now only a few questions remain in dispute. By and large, a properly trained whitewater paddler knows all the “right” things to do in virtually every scenario, and that had saved a lot of lives.
Sea kayaking has more dangers and fewer guinea pigs out there testing the limits, but a lot of progress has been made, and probably much more will be made in the next few decades.
thanks for topic; more please
Thanks to gnarlydog for posting this topic, and to everybody who responded, especially those with a lot of experience. There really needs to be more of this.
A rule to live by
Re: Experienced vs inexperienced.
One of my paddling buddies simplified the whole thing:
DON’T PADDLE WITH PEOPLE WHO CAN GET YOU KILLED.
A rule to live by
Re: Experienced vs inexperienced.
One of my paddling buddies simplified the whole thing:
DON’T PADDLE WITH PEOPLE WHO CAN GET YOU KILLED.
Inexperienced vs Experienced
A paddling buddy sums it up best:
DON’T PADDLE WITH PEOPLE WHO CAN GET YOU KILLED.
whitewater lesson
"DON’T PADDLE WITH PEOPLE WHO CAN GET YOU KILLED."
That’s an old whitewater adage (actually, probably a derivative of an old caveman adage - don’t hunt mammoth with people who can get you killed), and a good one, as far as it goes. It’s a very useful thing to remember before you go volunteering to lead a trip or join a trip with paddlers you don’t know.
However, it doesn’t do a lot to advance the analysis of a given safety problem, and I’m not sure of its relevance here. Do you mean that experts should never agree to lead a group that includes some less experienced paddlers (including friends and relatives who you’d like to introduce to the sport)? Or do you mean that you personally intend to ask group leaders about their views on rafting-up in a storm (and all other controversial issues) to be sure they hold the same views as you before you agree to join any group outing? Or just that you personally intend to stick with short, ultra safe trips by yourself in places where no one else ever goes (since even a highly skilled friend could accidentally get you killed under certain circumstances)?
For myself, again, I’d rather see more discussion on the issues, like the whitewater community went through (and still does), and achieve greater concensus on the issues. Then I would feel safer about going out with groups and trusting expert-leaders to make the right decisions.
Speaking of which, I was wondering about something - the whitewater community had a dedicated discussion board, on the ACA site, that tracked and discussed all whitewater fatalities and selected near misses. Does the sea kayak community have anything like that? If not, shouldn’t it? Maybe on that new “Sea Kayak Forum” site, or on this site if the owner is willing to dedicate space to it?
Reply to Memphis question
What it means to me is that I try to paddle with people who have the appropriate skill level for the task at hand. If it’s a friend or relative that I want to introduce to the sport, I try to take them out for a paddle that will be safe and enjoyable. As their skills improve, we go out in ever more challenging conditions so they can gain experience.
For the hairier stuff, we are more careful of those we invite.
The whole idea is to get everyone home safely.
So yes, I try to be careful.
If going out to paddle in severe conditions, I don’t invite those who
plan
get yourself in those conditions in a controlled setting, ie. wind blowing to shore, small craft warnings, bracing, rolling, practicing rescues so that the next time you plan an open water trip you'll have some idea as to what you're risking and the likelyhood of getting "caught" is lessened.
Ok, re-read the thread. I haven't experienced your scenario but have participated in led trips and have led them where things "went bad".
It's a hell of a responsibility and no time to discover your fellow paddlers misrepresented their skills. Just out of curiosity did your group have a plan for a fubar situation? In other words if the leader was incapacitated what would they have done?
ditto
and those people can be more or less experienced than you.
Homework assignment
I read through many responses again, and believe there is far more to this subject.
In particular, Gnarlydog (the OP) mentioned options vs ignorance.
As such, I will preface what follows with an interesting bit of knowledge.
In all the research on decision making in high risk environments that has been done back to the 1950’s, it turns out that we rarely, if ever, use classical analysis in such situations (Classical analysis is- gather evidence, make up multiple options, compare alternitives, choose). Instead, we either rely on preset rules (called heuristics), and/or prior experience.
Prior experience that is valid is called expertise (many prior experiences can be invalid!).
Of fascinating interest, those with some experience in a domain can gain expertise without actually going through the experience (nice, since some “experiences” are not survivable). Those people will run simulations in their head, and compare outcomes, but will file the results in their minds to be used later as expertise.
Make sense?
Try this. A group of paddlers gets caught out in a sudden, violent storm, with winds of 40+kn. Read the scenarios, and come up with an action plan.
#1. Group of strong (definition- succesful combat rolls, can hold pace of 4.5-5kn for at least 2hours) paddlers.
A) all can turn up or downwind, with diffuculty. Turning upwind and paddling is stable. Downwind risks surfing out of control, broaching and possible flips.
Upwind, to make way or just hold position brings complete exhaustion between 1/2-1hour.
B) some can turn up wind, some can only turn downwind (much easier to do in these winds).
#2 Group of mixed abilities. Two paddlers can turn up or downwind, the others experience having their boats pinned, beam to the wind.
A) Risk of capsize of the less mobile paddlers is obvious.
B) one of the less mobile paddlers capzises and wet exits.
#3 Group of mixed abilities. All experience inability to turn upwind.
A) Risk of capsize of all is high.
B) one of the less experienced paddlers capzises and wet exit.
OK, once you have gone through this, there are several modifiers.
But first, understand that the boat behavior, and paddler ability that is listed can occur as low as 30kn of wind. At 40kn, this is the very least that one will experience.
OK, the modifiers.
Of greatest note is visibility. Visibility necessary for group management becomes very difficult with wind at 40kn, more so if the seas are not fully developed. With a sudden wind, waves will be breaking, very short wavelengths, but not that big (2-3ft for that first hour). Wind blowing longer will actually makem bigger waves that will provide some protection. But the spray will deminish visibility. Also, do not disregard a nearly sure phenomenem called perceptual narrowing (especially the extreme, called hypervigilance). If you are not familiar and comfortable in this kind of situaion, you will get tunnel vision. Now, go back through the scenarios with this in mind.
Here is another. In 2B and 3B, add in the fact that, if a person wet exits in these conditions, and their boat is unloaded, there is tremendous force on that boat. There is a possibility that they lose their boat. Again, go back and come up with an action plan.
Two more. What about water temp, and paddler attire? Let’s say everyone is dressed for immersion, but the water temp is 50degF. What if the temp is mid-60’s? Any different possible plans?
Last one. Would it make a difference which way (upwind or down) is toward shore? How far is a bail-out?
Have fun, learn options, don’t throw out anything out of hand.
As a side note, many years ago I thought paddling in 40kn winds (measured, BTW) was fun. No longer.
Karl
lots of sense
Sounds like the original poster has the experience to process the information but the question about bailing implies otherwise. Kinda confusing.
I adhere to the McManus philosophy
The best place to ride out a storm is on a barstool of the nearest pub.
-rs
After looking at your beautiful photos
Great shots. My first thought in answer to your question is, “Strike the sails!-)”
Karl’s scenarios are thought provoking, not that I have any good answers. One thing that comes to mind is that if someone is probably going to come out of their boat, you are probably going to want to try an assisted rescue, difficult though it may be. So maybe you want to raft up first because you are going to anyway.
Another thing to think about is that the best solution may be the one the group is most familiar with. Surfing downwind may be best - if people have experience with it but may not be a good idea if everyone is going to broach and capsize.
amongst the several useless
answers every so often I get a thoughtful one.
Yours, Karl, is one of them.
Thank you for taking the time and having the intelligence for addressing the question.
Contributions like yours are educational.
Answers like “don’t go out there” are probably useless.
What I wanted to prompt is an assessment of the situation that theoretically can occur (probably has).
First hand accounts are often great tools for learning from other’s mistakes.
While some posters failed to identify that the scenario was hypothetical and were quick to unleash the typical blaming game few offered suggestion on how to actually get out of that situation while you are in it.
I’m sure we would all rather be snuggled in front of the fire when is stormy outside, it is through education on how to ride out a storm that might get us back to safety (and that fire).
Incident reports on The Sea Kayak Forum
Memphis , thanks to your suggestion and Gnarleydog I have included an area for incident reports on the Sea kayak forum…here.http://www.seakayakforum.com
I’m sure it will be a place where we all can learn from hopefully only others mistakes.
Thanks Tim
that’s why
I suggested a scenario where the leader is incapacitated. My sense is in the worst case scenario a leader will be overwhelmed as the group is broken up so how does each person survive? Do they each have a VHF, do they each have a bail out plan, etc.
I was sailing with a friend in the S.F. Bay when the winds were getting breezy 15+knots, around the south point of Angel Island there was a tour group of one leader and three doubles. The wind and waves and current were beyond the capabilities of two of the doubles and we could hear on the VHF the leader request for aid as one double capsized and the other drifted away from their landing/shelter. Thereafter we listened to the VHF communication on other channels the pleasure boat that came to their aid as well as the coast guards response.
That's my sense, working back from a fubar situation, "what if I can't affect any change in the situation what can I do before hand?"
Once the group is broken up do the resulting parts still have the capabilities to wait out or manage through the next set of circumstances?
It's fluid but some of the seemingly worthless advice to "not go" comes from that realization that you've got the responsibility to care for people unprepared for the conditions and the consequences may well be beyond your capabilities.
I would think the ability to communicate within the group before and after the event are critical as it's not going to be easy during. The first to agree on a change of expectations and maybe designate pairings of paddlers and afterwards to re-organize as a group or organize and implement rescue.
just paddle into it
enough to keep control. not necessarily strenuous. you may not be making forward progress but the objective is to stay in control, right? its fun!