Most of the US coast will see a one-foot sea level rise in the next 30 years, and the Gulf may see as much as a foot and a half rise in the same time span. Our children and grandchildren will be experiencing a rapidly changing world. What will a one-foot rise mean in the near future for the everglades.
2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report (noaa.gov)
We are seeing the flooding of downtown Boston waterfront more and more. When I first saw something like that, it was in the Blizzard of 78. The blizzard and flooding was supposed to be a once in a lifetime event. Well, we see that type flooding 1-2 times a year now.
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Here is the link to the NOAA Interactive Map on sea level rise. I think I have the link set to a one foot sea level rise.
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Good link. I expect that predictions will have increased as time goes on, given that we are not yet effective, as a society, in cutting back on carbon emissions. The changes I have seen in my lifetime are quite noteworthy already. Fasten your seatbelts…
My fellow civil engineering professor paddlerr reports that parts of the land is “receeding” regardless of what sea level does. Parts are also rising. Plate tectonics and settlements.
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Not to mention subsidence from sucking the aquifers dry.
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Luckily, I live on one of the high points of Tampa. Our floor id an elevation of 34 feet, so we will be good until after I die.
I do feel sorry for those that will come after us.
The Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing of the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ISPRS) reports that shorelines all around the World have been expanding.
Australia’s coasts have been growing at a rate of +0.10 m/year. Asia’s coasts have been expanding +0.64 m/year. Europe’s coasts are accreting +0.45 m/year. And the African continent has been observed expanding at a +0.31 m/year clip since 1984.
The only two continents where coasts have not been observed expanding in recent decades are South America, 0.00 m/year, and North America, -0.29 m/year.
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Link to details please?
What the NOAA report states is the amount of sea level rise in the next 30 years of 12" will surpass all of the rise in the last century of 5.5". In other words, the rate of sea level rise is increasing and will continue the trend. At the current rate you are looking at a 3-foot rise in the next 100 years. That is a 600% increase in sea level rise in the next 100 years. This is ignoring that the rate of rise is forecast to increase just as it has over the last few decades.
Shoreline increase does not preclude loss of current coastline. Think of it this way, a straight shoreline at one water level may become very convoluted at another water level thus expanding the shoreline but not necessarily increasing or decreasing the land area. The type of coastline also has a bearing on this. I would really like to read the report.
I tried to find the ISPRS report you mentioned. What I see is varied reports on the topic with lots of concern for the increasing sea levels in some of them.
Here are 3 examples of ISPRS reports I found on the topic.
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I was not disputing but adding in regards to the tectonic shift mentioned above, another factor in the ever changing shoreline
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I noticed NOAA spelled out their forecast in great detail in point one and two and point three went straight to the cause (Emissions). Point four was that they plan on tracking for adaptation plans.
I noticed the news picked up on this yesterday and showed simulations of major cities underwater even showing the statue of liberty just sticking out of the water. As if this was going to happen soon.
I suspect the story will become a political ball this year and we won’t hear much on the scientific front except we need to stop burning fuels and switch everything to solar and wind and electric. We wont hear plans for new nuclear powering of the world just wind and solar.
There is no forethought to how man thinks. I remember Hilton Head as an example 50-60 years ago and the growth about to take off and talk of the historic 100-year storm. The whole place is only 10’ above sea level. Now you can hardly get around the island it is so populated.
I am familiar with the articles you found, and it is true that in many parts of the world coastal erosion predominates.
What the new study reports is that accretion predominates worldwide:
“There has been a recent increase of studies focused on large-scale shoreline change mapping. However, most current methods are optimized for extracting shorelines of wave-dominated sandy beaches, which are only 30% of the global coasts, resulting in uncertainty for other environments such as tidal flats and bedrock. Here, we propose a new shoreline change mapping workflow, using the Landsat archive and Google Earth Engine, which increases compute efficiency and is suitable for retrieving shoreline changes for various coastal landforms at high tide instead of mean sea level. ”
This link will give you access to the Abstract: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a … 1621002598
Unfortunately, the main content costs money, but fortunately there is an image of some of the key content here:
https://i1.wp.com/climatechangedispatch … .jpg?ssl=1
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You did get me interested in the work the ISPRS is doing, fasinating. Tectonic shift, subsidence from depleted aquafers and oil reserves, storms, natural river delta formation, manmade land reclamations, and damming rivers that build deltas to name some ways shorelines change with time. The coast is an active area of consent change. Where I paddle the natural sections of the SC coast, I have seen the barrier Islands changing over time. The extensive spartina marshes and marsh creeks have remained basically the the same. A 12" rise in 30 years I suspect will have an impact on the distribution of the spartina, and on the extensive oyster bars in the area. That is quite a rapid change.
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Thanks, I enjoyed that info greatly especially the world map and the change to high tides instead of mean sea level. Wonder how those dynamics fare as the rate of global ice melt increases with a concurrent rate of sea level rise. I found this quote about the hotspot changes interesting. " Most of these hotspots were related to river sediment discharge and human intervention on the coast, as expected."
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Another thing that I find a bit worrying about the oysters, are possible effects on the level of salinity in the marsh and bays. There is a classic water use/rights case over the amount of water reaching the Apalachicola Bay that has been fought over between FL and GA. Atlanta 's growth has placed a heavy demand on the Apalachicola drainage basin. The famous oyster industry has died there because of the increased salinity caused by the low output of the river.
10,000 ago, areas as far south as Pennsylvania were covered in glaciers. Warming temperatures were welcomed by settlers, but vacatiin homes and condominiums on the coast made warming temperatures a concern. Not sure how to stop a 10,000 years warming trend, or even slow it. Wonder if the return of glaciers would be as welcoming. I’m having trouble coping with 6 months of cold weather. Eight inches of snow stops most cities.
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I often tell people complaining about winter that 20,000 years ago right where we live had a 2 mile thick layer of ice that was slowly moving cutting out the Great Lakes. They then fire up their 5HP gas powered snow blower that runs about 3 hours a year and would be illegal in Ca, and clear the 6” of snow we got over night.
Our 44th president isn’t that worried he bought a $12M house in Martha’s Vineyard that’s about 10’ above sea level a couple years ago. Now he is building another in Hawaii with a sea wall.
That’s what I was thinking. Nova had an archeological expedition. Dinosaurs in Alaska. They wondered how they withstood the cold. They weren’t curious enough to ask about the tropical plants that were eating.
Yes we have had major finds of fossils here as Lake Erie is constantly moving its lake banks, someplace cliffs back. There are shale cliffs and pieces break off and someone finds a dinosaur fossil. They come and cut out the sections and take them away.
I’m not saying man isn’t the cause of a lot of problems. Lake Erie when I was a kid got pretty bad around the major cities, but they got that cleaned up and IMO the lake is better than it’s been in my lifetime. The president just gave a billion to clean up the Great Lakes yesterday. It will be interesting to see how they spend it and what good will happen because of it.
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