I have been watching the river levels and the weather as my group’s trip to the Buffalo is the week after the Spring Rendezvous. There is a lot of rain in the picture up there this week and the river is still a bit up from last weeks storm. I would keep an eye on it. Having been caught camping on the river when a huge storm raised the river from 4 to 11ft overnight, I tend to sleep with one eye open if there is even the remotest chance of rain up there.
Vic, I’m so sorry to hear that you won’t be coming. Its been way too long since we’ve hung at a campfire or shared morning coffee with the gang. I’m glad to hear you’re well and taking care of yourself, and I guess I share your concern regarding motels - I had to stay in one last fall when a U-joint went out on my way to the Daryl Bathel paddle in Sylvania. It made me pretty nervous and I stayed away from the lobby and breakfast areas as much as possible - but that was unavoidable, unlike in your situation. It worked out OK in my case, but that’s in no way guaranteed. Better not to risk it.
Hope to see you in the fall - be well. Maybe an Upper Iowa/Yellow R. trip? Kickapoo?
Just an FYI for everyone. The Buffalo River at Ponca just spiked to 10 1/4 feet, well past flood stage, and a discharge of over 6600 cfs as of 4:15 PM today and the gauge is still spiking nearly straight up. There is a good chance of additional rain in the area tonight and extending into tomorrow. Of course, a week from now the river might be so far back down as to not even allow a put-in at Ponca or Steel Creek. Hopefully, Ozark Campground will not have any serious flooding issues. They sit pretty high up and made out pretty well even with the big flood in the Spring of 2017.
But keep an eye on the gauges over the next week. The link to the Ponca gauge is below:
Hopefully this will mean we will have good water a week from now.
Over on the Current Alley Spring Campground was evacuated this afternoon.
A photo taken at the Hasty access on the Buffalo this afternoon: 
Not much of a climb up the hill today.
Thanks for the update, Pete. Looks pretty wild. (We’re dry up here - even have fire restrictions in place.) But that river drops just as fast as it rises, if the lessons of the past hold true.
Yes, I recall after the big flood the last week of April 2017 the river at Ponca went from just over 18 feet and around 14,000 cfs back down to under 5 feet and around 650 cfs within a matter of 3 days.
However, since I posted that yesterday there has been another inch and a half or rain recorded at Ponca and after briefly peaking yesterday afternoon the river has shot back up and is currently at a stage or 21.13 feet and 17,300 cfs, considerably higher than April 29, 2017, and it is still rising.
So there could be significant flood damage in the area. There is also the possibility of damage occurring at Ozark Campground. The gauge at Pruitt this morning is now at a stage of 21.3 feet and 17,600 cfs and still rising steeply with a lot more water headed that way from upstream. That is already close to where it was at its peak on April 30, 2017 when it recorded a stage of 25 feet and 22,000 cfs.
I recall the first week in May 2017 that the lowest campsites that sat down in a small depressed plateau near the river had flooded but the rest of the campground was OK. But if the river rises much more than a few more feet, that could be different this time.
Pete, if I’m recalling correctly the very first time I paddled on the Buffalo - and you were there that trip - it all started around the campfire at Pulltite on the Current, hearing on the weather radio that they were pulling campers out of trees over on the Buffalo. The Bob suggested we go there. I thought he’d gone insane. Bad tequila or something… And then everyone else who was in the know about Ozark rivers started considering it and decided to go. I think the river was down to about six feet when we got there and four the next morning when we paddled. It was a great time… chocolate milk colored , but delightful. Remember that huge hole on the right upstream from Steel Creek, if memory serves.
But like I said in my first post - hell wouldn’t deter me but high water might. That Boxley Bridge photo is discouraging… But the trailer’s ready to roll and I’m watching.
Just go… Send a pic from Ponca if possible. I note the Buffalo at Ponca is edging down a smidge for now.
The flowers gotta be pretty even if you are stuck on land trails. We’re suspended between winter and spring…more snow.
Yes, I was on that trip. Do you recall what year that was?
I have heard experienced Buffalo paddlers say that no matter how high the upper Buffalo gets, it will drop below 5 feet on the Ponca gauge by 3 days after the rain stops. The middle Buffalo takes longer to rise and after it has it drops more slowly.
The Ponca gauge shows over 5 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours but it looks as if it has stopped for the moment. The river has peaked again at a stage of 14 feet at Ponca early this morning and has dropped back to 10.61’ as of 8 AM. However, weather forecasts suggest the possibility of more than an inch of additional rain falling over Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday collectively. Spread over three days, however, that amount of rain, should it come to pass, shouldn’t cause the river to spike again but will hopefully keep it charged at a good level.
This photo was taken at 6:30 PM yesterday at the Ponca bridge when the stage on the gauge was reading around 9 feet with a discharge of around 5000 cfs. However, the river rose after this to a peak of 14 feet and around 14,000 cfs discharge early this AM.
So imagine another 5 feet higher and about and not quite three times as much flow at peak:
Here’s the NOAA Forecast for the Buffalo at St Joe Unfortunately they only do the Advanced Hydro forecast at the St Joe gauge, but it give you a pretty good snapshot.
If you want to monitor, go to https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lzk&gage=sjoa4
I just hope that the rain that is forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will keep the river from falling to much. We all know the rain that just happened will be gone by the time next Wednesday rolls around. I know some of you will get there earlier than others, if the river is to high go chase waterfalls as there are plenty of them. Our plan is to arrive sometime Wednesday, I would think in the afternoon, of course no paddling for us that day but we’ll be ready to roll on Thursday (at least I will, Rob may be hiking depending on outcome of MRI this Friday on his shoulder). Everyone be safe driving and SO looking forward to see you all!
Pam
WOW, that is massive!
But I’m still planning on attending. Going to go exploring 1st, have 2 Super 8’s booked: Hannibal & Branson, then planning on setting up tent, hopefully it’s safe to leave, because I have friends in Bentonville that I’m going to spend several nights there hiking various places. Fully vaccinated
As Pam said, the river will certainly be a whole lot lower within 3 to 4 days unless there is a large amount of additional rain that has not been forecast. Hopefully, there will be a bit of rain early in the coming week that will keep the river at a “sporty” level, but the upper Buffalo rises and falls very quickly.
Do you still plan to arrive at Ozark Campground before Wednesday May 5? My daughter and I will either be arriving on Tuesday or Wednesday depending on relative water levels on the upper Buffalo and upper Jacks Fork River.
Check to make sure there are no road closures along your intended route. Hwy 142 in southern Missouri is currently closed in four separate locations due to flooding, but I have been informed by someone in the vicinity that it should be fully reopened within the next day or two.
Back early from a paddle on the Current River due to heavy rains and preparing for next week. I’m planning to attend and paddle wherever the conditions allow. I’m a little unclear on the paddling schedules. It sounds like May 5 and 9 might be travel days or are you planning to float on those dates? I can arrive almost anytime. I know we will have to be flexible but could someone post a general itinerary of floating days? Thanks and looking forward to meeting everyone. Marty
An itineray of floating days does not, and likely will not occur.
Everyone has a general idea of river conditions right now; nobody can predict what is going to happen. Nobody knows who will put in an appearance, and nobody can predict what they will want to do.
Some may show up and go for it; even if the river is high. We’ve done it before.
Some may go for a scenic drive, and take photos of water they “ain’t gonna paddle”,
Some may sit in camp and twiddlle their thumbs,have some adult beverages,take a nap, and wait to hear how it was from those who went for it.
Some may put up stakes and go to a different river; done that before.
Some may pull up stakes and go home. Seen that happen.
Some may wait a day or two just to see what is going to happen; then make a decision.
Some may arrive early; some may arrive later.
If you want to be bold, and the river is way up; if you put on, you damn well better have a canoe that is fully bagged out, have an excellect pfd, a first aid kit, a haul system, and perhaps even a helmet, and a couple of others paddling with you have their game together.
You show up; you take all things into consideration, and use good decision making skills. Go or no go is up to you!
No itinerary…
Every possible option I’ve mentioned; I’ve done at one time or another…
The trip Pat Cannon and Pete did on the Buffalo, I did it too. We had a ball. Some who chose to “stay in camp” made well reasoned decisions for their skill level. I don’t think too many photos of that trip exists. Speaking for myself; I was too busy paddling, and Pat; that one hole was scary looking to me, and I skirted it, thinking it might cause me to do a 180 degree back flip…
A man has to know his limitations…
BOB
P.S. This beautiful Mad River Courier (kevlar layup) was what I was paddling that day. I didn’t want to take it home in multiple pieces.
I didn’t have any air bags in it that day.
Marty, there could be some folks that will arrive prior to 5/5 but they may not be posting on the thread. But most will arrive on Wednesday but not paddle that day. Paddle, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Again some will paddle Sunday, but that is my travel home day as I have to be at work Monday but most are retired and can stay if they choose. Hope this helps.
See ya next week,
Pam
Thanks Pam. That’s what I needed to know.