Risk management charts for sea kayaking?

Advice
#1

When I was an active hang glider pilot in the 2000’s, many pilots recommended a risk management manual (that I have a copy of) called “The Art of Skysailing” by Michael Robertson. The manual was amazing, as the author had developed a detailed series of charts (or matrices) for scoring reliability before flying. The final reliability score was on a 0-10 scale (10 = most reliable and 0=least reliable) and incorporated many sub-scores for all the variables that pilots encounter.

This got me wondering if anyone has attempted anything like this for sea kayaking? Hang gliding and sea kayaking have one huge common element: the weather. And many of the other variables in this author’s system could (I think) be adapted to kayaking.

The hang gliding risk management manual includes reliability charts for foot-launching off hills and cliffs, aerotowing, the glider itself, and a “personal reliability chart.”

On each chart, there are 20 variables that you score from 0-10. For example, the foot-launch hang gliding chart is divided into two main sections, with 10 variables for each:

WEATHER
Sky: cloud cover %
Sky: Cloud type(s)
Sky: Fronts (shear)
Sky: Lapse rate (amount of temperature drop at increasing altitudes)

Forecast: Moisture/precipitation
Forecast: Barometric pressure
Forecast: Temperature

Temporal: time of day
Temporal: season
Temporal: wind direction

LOCATION
Wind: speed
Wind: gusts
Wind: crosswinds

Launch site: hill size and shape
Launch site: slope of hill
Launch site: landing area
Launch site: takeoff area

Environs: hill vegetation and/or trees
Environs: location (wind origins)
Environs: visibility

After the reliability scoring chart, there are several pages where each variable is explained in detail along with suggestions for how to score each one. Importantly, if any variable is scored a 0 (zero), it instantly reduces overall reliability to zero.

And finally, the “personal” reliability chart is great, because the variables include things like:

  • health
  • conditioning
  • reflexes
  • eyesight
  • fatigue
  • ego
  • spectators
  • cameras
  • peer pressure
  • competition
  • experience
  • confidence
  • time since last flight
  • drugs
  • mood
  • maturity
  • intuition
  • self-awareness
  • relaxation
  • stress

Anyway, if there is interest in this manual, I might scan and upload it. If something like this doesn’t already exist, I think it would be worthwhile to adapt for sea kayaking (and maybe whitewater).

#2

A few of us who are high up the food chain of instruction use The Four Questions:

  1. What are the moves to get from point A to point B?

  2. Do I have the ability to make the moves?

  3. What are the consequences if I don’t?

  4. Am I willing to accept the consequences?

A few of the organizations that have contracted to me to run instructional courses or certify instructors have also adopted this.

2 Likes
#3

Maybe you mean ‘accept the consequences’?

#4

Thanks. Corrected. Auto spell. Was on mobile.

#5

Those are good! I mean, anything that helps people think about risk factors is good. I really like the longer “personal risk factor” list above because it contains a lot of factors that can absolutely hurt people—things they may not be aware of (or willfully ignore), such as…

  • spectators
  • cameras
  • peer pressure
  • competition

Some people lack the self-awareness (which is another personal factor) to realize how much those other things can increase their risk. Along with things like “fear of being left behind” or “fear of being perceived as unskilled.”

These things might seem obvious, but in decades of doing high-risk sports (and having several friends die doing them) I’ve observed that a significant percentage of people just don’t think about these things enough.

#6

I kinda liked “accompany the consequences”…wherever they may lead you. Slightly poetic!

#7

10 day weather forecast and wind forecasts, river flow data, tide tables, high ground and marsh take outs, alternate routes, charts, maps, GPS, Spare paddles, PLB or equivalent, more fresh water than needed if it isn’t otherwise available are some of the things to help counter risks.

Having taken numerous trips with people on wilderness hunts and on water camping trips. I am aware of personnel pitfalls. There are only a few I am willing to invite though I may include someone I judge capable. If joining a group I’m invited on I am not hesitant in speaking up about potential risks.

As I age I also realize I am becoming less capable myself. I am reasonably comfortable with the risks I take but not too comfortable with them and have called short on trips if conditions change or someone proves to be a weak link or don’t think or feel confident with a situation.

1 Like