Good question! And there are many example in the wildlife realm of ranges shifting, both Northward (and to higher altitudes in mountainous areas) due to climate warming. Not to mention shifts in the timing of migration, the start of egg laying, etc.
But, in the case of horseshoe crabs, the range has been steady, going from Maine down to Florida, with an odd disjunct population on the Yucatan Peninsula. What you have observed is probably due to over harvest.
Horseshoe crabs are fascinating creatures. One of the most studied marine organisms. For example, their large optic nerve has helped us understand vision more than any other animal, I think. Their immune system provides us with a test that has become the world-wide standard for ensuring the safety from bacterial contamination of things like vaccines, pace makers, artificial knees, etc.
Interestingly, there used to be a law on the books in Massachusetts requiring people encountering horseshoe crabs on the shore to carry them up above high tide and leave them there to die. That was because they felt, at the time, that horseshoe crabs (which eat clams as part of their diet) were competing with the clam fishermen. That law was not taken of the books until sometime in the late 2000s, if memory serves.
But back to your question, you probably saw fewer, or even none, due to over harvesting by watermen who sold them to conch fishermen. This conch fishery, that drove the harvest of horseshoe crabs, and still is ongoing, started in the late 1980s or early 1990s. It was a new, unregulated fishery, and we have reports of tractor trailer loads of horseshoe crabs being taken from some NJ spawning beaches.
In the Delaware bay, by the late 1990s, anecdotal observations were that the spawning population of horseshoe crabs had declined so much that the excess eggs in Delaware Bay were in short supply for red knots, a shorebird highly dependent on these surface, thus threatening the red knot population. I guess I should add that the Delaware Bay was known to have, by far, the highest spawning population of horseshoe crabs in the world. All these crabs laid so many eggs that you couldn’t use the sand for concrete during breeding season, too many eggs in the sand. All these extra eggs (spawning crabs bury the eggs, but wave action and later spawning crabs dig some of the eggs up, and once at the surface, the eggs are either eaten or dry up and die) provide much needed food for the red knots.
Other places, like New England, anywhere horseshoe crabs could be harvested, were probably also in decline. I think the low point was around 2000, and I just took a look at Massachusetts data and that is what their seine survey (which they use as a population index for horseshoe crabs) shows. A period of decline from 1984 to 2000, and then an increasing population from 2000 onward. So if that is the time period of your observations it makes sense that in the local areas you were at, there may have been very few/none compared to today.
Horseshoe Crab Protection Enhanced in Massachusetts | Mass.gov
As declines were noted, btw, The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, a cooperative joint fishery management body was asked to add horseshoe crabs to their list of managed species, and since 2000 the harvest has been reduced and regulated, with focus on ensuring that red knots have enough eggs available for their needs during migration.
Sorry, you got me going, smile. I have too much info on this subject ready to spill out at the slightest provocation.