It just ‘disappeared’.
No surf for you,
better yet,
No hurricane for you.
It was to be ‘Gabriel’, and saw it mentioned as such.
Next storm, will they go to ‘H’, or will they use ‘Gabriel’?
I would guess, since it wasn’t ‘officially’ a ‘Storm’, it will get used for the next one.
I’ve been watching it for about a week, it’s gone from the ‘yellow’ to ‘orange’ went south a bit, turned ‘red’, then it was no more.
Friday:
Today:
Correction, spelling, should be: ‘Gabrielle’
Yup. She has yet to be formed. This particular tropical wave is dissipating from lots of dry air in its path. Gabrielle will be the name of the next TD that morphs into a TS.
We still got some little waves for the next few days from a a frontal boundary passing overhead right now. We had reports of a small tornado in central MA yesterday evening. Supposed to be checking in to a beach campsite today. Taking my time as it is a deluge out there right now. It’s cool. After most storms, there’ll be sunshine AND waves! 
-sing
Was this unexpected - and therefore not part of the prediction for forming a storm?
I know little to nothing in how they do their predictions - must be ultra-complex.
I don’t recall that TD getting more than a 30% chance of evolving into a name tropical storm. The forecasters saw the dry air and adverse wind conditions. Of course, the news focused on the name being “Gabrielle” were the disturbance to actually morphed into a storm.
-sing
Richard on TV 4 said early on it might dissipate when it gets to the west indies. Which seems to have happened.
Weather channel probably predicted it would wash Florida away.
I think the weather forecasters (and other less knowledgeable news people) are just more focused on the storms this year because, the National Hurricane Center predicted a very active season. That prediction was revised downward a bit, but the last I saw they were still predicting an above average season. That got everyone all hyped up… so far, they have been wrong, which is good news!
News/media are very focused on sensationalism. They want your eyes and from that, they can get revenue. Hurricane Sandy taking out a lot of NJ was a great story on many levels, so media got a lot of airtime out of that, giving reports as they were standing in the water, in the ruins of houses, trying to stand up in the wind, etc.
The one that dumped all that rain in the mtns of NC was really, REALLY, surprising…to me anyway. A lot of devastation, but not a lot of media coverage. That’s surprising to me also as it would be a perfect “human interest/emotional” stories.
Some asian island get typhoons every year too. Most of their buildings are concrete and solid construction roofs. Big typhoon hits, they mostly just stay in their homes, then come out afterwards, meh…
I missed out on 2 days of big lake fishing due to weather predictions. They predicted the wind out of the SW, but the wind came from the SE. Huge difference as wind from a big lake has big waves, unlike wind from land.
Being able to just predict wind with a little accuracy would be nice, but grown to not expect it.
Granny Clampett could tell the weather by watching the ants. There may be some wisdom in that as they build up their house entrances before rain comes…
I follow the weather from the weather service not the nightly news. If you notice they give a probability with the forecast in the image above, and you should expect those to be revised as time goes on.
Hellena Did have a lot of media coverage as it came through where I live. The forecast track up through Georgia and the Carolinas was accurate. We were aware of potential problems before it came through. We have family in the area that was hard hit in NC. They had lots of rain before the hurricane ever became a threat, and the ground was saturated which contributed to the excessive run off. River sides in the mountains are notorious for flooding. We had a tree down in our yard and some trees fell on boats at the sailing club. If you live along the gulf and east coast you want to know what’s out there during hurricane season.
Do you know what species of ant Granny used to predict the weather?
Yes, the damage was terrible, and lives impacted. Just like the coasts of FL the Ashville area has had explosive growth in the last couple of decades. A lot of people from Florida move to the Ashville area. They are called Halfbacks because they move from up north to FL then move from there up to NC. The water tends to attract people and development.
Looks like we did get a tornado the other evening.
The ocean is a little stirred. Will catch some small waves later, when the tide drops a bit.
-sing
[quote]
I follow the weather from the weather service not the nightly news. If you notice they give a probability with the forecast in the image above, and you should expect those to be revised as time goes on.[/quote]
I’m surprised that anyone watches nightly news. They’ve been so discredited, their only hope at redemption is to have emotional heartstring segments where they get a female/mother to cry, then zoom in on her face for the win.
Some of my friends have ‘weather stations’ at their houses, but I’m not that detailed as it’s not that important to me. Weather dot com is decent and as you said, they state possibilities, probabilities of outcomes.
That is the natural, actual scientific way of doing things, especially when it’s as complex as weather/climate. The more variables over a greater amount of time naturally makes the predicted outcome have lower, accurate predictability. Again, look at all the dire predictions that have taken place since the 1970s…and how exactly 0 of them have come true.
And the explanation of those continual failures? Well, that faulty logic and predicted outcome just proved what is happening now…as they help prove the predicted future outcomes of today.
Scientifically, logically, that makes zero sense. A failure is a failure, especially if they are put forth as a “settled science”. Abandon it, delete the model, look at the data collection methods and the assumptions built into that.
How were they collected?
How did they even become a variable in the first place?
How were they weighted as their valid, measurable contribution to the outcome, as shown by the mathematical model used to get the “answer”.
But none of that happens. That doesn’t happen because it’s not a science…OK, maybe a social science like sociology, but it’s far more complex than even that.
What kinda ants did granny clampett use? Why hollywood ones, of course!
Nature knows. The tsunami that wiped out a lot of indonesia? The elephants were heading to the high ground long before it arrived. if squirrels are out during the day, scrounging food at our bird feeders, I know cold/bad weather is going to come. Birds can also be good, but squirrels are better.
If there’s been a streak of very cold/bad weather, the deer will change their feeding time, coming out earlier and staying longer. They are pretty hidden sometimes so harder to predict future weather w/them.
I’ve always been amazed when people build their nice houses along streams in the mountains. That’s a natural flood zone, but they don’t care. Big Thompson flood in CO wiped out a lot, but they rebuilt a lot. Same with the ocean front properties on the SE usa. FEMA shouldn’t bail them out as they knowingly choose that. Let them deal w/it thru their insurance companies.
Naturally. Once people attain a certain level of affluence, their priorities become more fun oriented, thus recreational ammenities become more importance in locational decisions.
Urban and Regional Planning, Real Estate, 101
We predicted this in the 80s using the boomer cohort. So many changes in urban, suburban, then rural landscapes were due to this.
Of course, animals react to things like barometric pressure and subsonic sounds that we require instrumentation to measure. They don’t forecast weather they react to it. Your ant statement assumed the same species of ant in CA as TN. It lacked specificity not all ants are the same. Our dog Maggie knew an earthquake had happened and started barking before the shock wave got to our house and before I could hear it coming. I let her outside and stood in the doorway as she barked facing the direction it was coming from before I could hear it. She didn’t predict it. I have heard a lot of stuff like deer don’t move when it’s windy or when the cows are lying down which is more supposition than fact. I have seen deer moving in both cases.
I am impressed by the reliability of the current state of weather modelling and hurricane tracking. I don’t expect it to be perfect. As for the nightly news they also use the weather services for their weather reports. I just like going to the source and getting the finer detail. I disagree in your option that the news isn’t to be trusted. I feel most journalist try to suspend their bias when reporting. I don’t expect them to always be successful. I like when both sides of an issue are interviewed. As for the editorials and talking heads I do expect them to be expressing opinions and cherry-picking facts. I am open minded but judge for myself based on my experiences and knowledge.
As a sailor I use various local weather stations and wind modeling apps like Windy, Wind Guru, and Ventusky. I also use NAOA 7-day spot forecast, WU 10-day forecast, and My Radar. I will listen to the weather channels on my VHF while camping or on the water. Someone here recently suggested the My Lightning Tracker app for the phone. It shows real time lightning strikes within something like a 50-mile radius of my current location. I prefer them to elephants and ants.
I was traumatized by the prediction of a new ice age that was imminent. This might sound crass, but I was delighted to hear of the forcast of global warming. I far more anticipate the coming of summer than the idea of shoving my long driveway. I almost bought a snow plow, but investrd in a lawn mower instead.
I can sympathize with poor Greta Thunderbird, but i would have thought her more enthusiastic about a warming climate to improve the Swedish climate. Yet that would surely require a wardrobe revamp.
Nobody has yet offered clarification about the tree ring chart and its foreboding implications.
I definitely hope it doesn’t shorten the kayaking season.
lol, me three. Global cooling and the new ice age was the settled science indeed, so much so that after I graduated, I was going to move to the mid lattitudes of the US as I didn’t want to live in the coming very cold weather.
I chose missouri…but never moved there anyway.
The failing predictions of global cooling is turned into the failing predictions of global warming as a proof. I just cannot wrap my head around that. If that were so, then why didn’t they say global warming and ice melt back then instead of global cooling and new ice age? Very very weak.
At least they settled on calling the reasoning for their lifestyle demands upon others ‘climate change’. Yeah, we can all agree that climates indeed change.
One thing I still get a kick out of tho is their mantra of “there’s only 25 years of oil left on earth”. Back then I never understood basis for that. If they just looked at a map of russia, the population dispersion of it, almost all of that is wildnerness. How do they know what’s under there?
Crazy, but I think humans sometimes like to think we are smarter than we really are. I know I sometimes do…
I was in my 20s with that second prediction of fossil fuel depletion. Then living down wind of unsettling days and night (with a new family in 1979) of Three Mile Island and the China Syndrome; the Chernobyl disaster that was only contained by the life sacrifuce and dedication of the Russian firefighter in 1986; and the Fukushima in 1911. Then Greta Thurnberg, but looks like she has a new cause.
I’d rather think about bunnies.
Jyak, you often make me smile. Thank you for that.
That the earth was heading for the next ice age and that anthropomorphic carbon pollution has changed that to heating up the planet are not mutually exclusive concepts. It has little to do with weather prediction, but much to do with weather impacts.
I’m not sure how much science was in the running out of oil hype. I think that was based on only the known oil reserves at the time not the unknown. I never bought into that either. The advancements in the science of geology (the acceptance of continental drift in the 60s for one) and the advent of fracking certainly improved access to oil deposits. I have to wonder if in the future will that be viewed as a good thing considering the contribution of oil production to plastic and atmospheric pollution changing our planet.
Sometimes I make me smile. I’m a believer that the earth is warming. It has been for many thousands of years. All anyone has to do is look at fossil fuel deposits, consider the locations and ask the question: how much vegetation and dinosaur cadavers it takes to creat those deposits. There is a heap of explaining to do, especially how earth’s atmosphere goes through cycles of heating and cooling.
What scares me more than anything else is the reality that asteroids moving through space bombard the planets with regularity. In fact, a contributing factor to the formation of the Chesapeake Bay was a meteor strike at the entrance to the Bay. The tip off to geologists was the uncharacteristic course of rivers in the vicinity. Now to my eyes, they look fine to me, but I don’t have enough free time to figure why a river zigs when it should’ve zagged, but somebody just couldn’t accept it and examined the area, only to find it was due to an impact crater that caused the rivers to flow into the crater. To make a long story longer, the water level was low then. Along the way, the Bay was only a river, then a drowned river valley. It’s deep and getting deeper. Over the past 20 years, I see island disappear from errosion. I understand that some islands in the Bay are disappearing, but the cause is “subsidence” where the land sinks under its own weight, and it shrinks from errosion. Unfortunately, some snake oil scoundrels are either ignorant of the concept or intentionally misidentify the reason.
I’m also following disruptions in the cycle of geysers and hot springs in Yellowstone, as well as plate techtonics and volcanic reawakening around the world. A major shift could be far more significant than humans turning off the light switch when leaving a room.
Some people raise a hue and cry, and we experience the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome. Investors (some well intentioned, while others are expoitation-mind) see opportunities and peddle fixes. A little bad press taints the good intentions of the movement. Ironically, the artificial spike in energy prices has had a negative impact, because so many people have opted for wood burning stoves, which are dirtier than the fuel they replaced.
Regardless whether recycling is a sound concept, ot makes sense to separate electronics, batteries, metals, plastics ang glass, but even when made easy and available, so many people I know simply disregard it. At parties, i can find multiple trash cans that are overflow, but none for recycling. Bottkes can be crushed for aggregate in road beds or cement, metals easily returned to useful objects. Some things incinerated and used to generate steam for electricity . . . Yet, we can’t get a consensus. The best thing to do is everybody commit to an ideology and follow it. If enough do that voluntarily, it makes an impact.
We need to be cautious of unsavory zealots who suggest blocking the sunlight to reduce earth temperatures. I won’t entertain the ignorance of that folly.
My parents had nine children, I had four, and three of them had two each. No need or desire to terminste any, just a conscious effort, self control, and let everybody worry about their own state of affairs. Where I disagree is the notion that I need to exercise self control, which contributes to a declining population, then my elected official take it as a personal crusade to import a flow of people, then expect me to subsidize them so they can compete with my children who paid for their own education. Now kids today think somebody (my kids snd me) should finance their education (while carlenters, plumbers, and electricians who shunned formal education in favor of physical labor, puck up the burden for everybody). It’s an individual choice whether to support it or not. I will not protest anyone for the personal choice, but neither will I endorse it. I’m no science denier. I just disagree with the options, and fear ignorant zealots.
Many people don’t realize that hurricanes are a critical part of how temperature and moisture is redistributed around the planet. As pointed out elsewhere, the changing sea levels hasn’t curbed building in flood plains or on the coasts. Especially by those who advocate for radical environmental causes. Just a personal perspective. Rather than pointing fingers, I’d like to see everyone take personal responsibility to enact change, rather than provoke advocacy.
I actually found the article about oxygen level interesting.
Ukrainian. That was russian cobbled, aka ‘built’ but it was in ukraine and operated by the ukrainians. Some heroic stuff happened at that event.
latest ru invasion, they had old maps,so they went there for shelter. Didn’t know they were sheltering in a radio active area…
