Idiots at boat launch: specimen #2

John offers very little in the way of what I would call advice. What he has done is widely review the most current scientific literature and national and international vital statistics data regarding covid-19, virtually on a daily basis

Scientific papers are often tedious and difficult for the lay public to read and understand. He distills and presents the information from these articles in a way that is easy for most lay individuals to comprehend. In my opinion, he does so without taking data out of context, repressing information, or otherwise shading the facts. He provides links to any source from which he cites data so in most cases you can examine the source material on your own, if it is not behind a paywall.

His videos have been viewed over 500 million times. He has well over 2 million subscribers and receives data from health care professionals and public health personnel from around the world, information that otherwise would likely not be available to the public.

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I have a longstanding avoidance of medical opinions or advice from youtube and not anything specifically against him. I’m not arguing about this further. Watch anything you chose to watch. It’s (still) a free country.

It sounds like your frustration with her lack of concern bled into anger about her immigration. If she was concerned enough to warn people, then she should have stayed home, wherever that is. I don’t know how common place mismatched plates are up there, but I see it alot. I live close to the Texas border and I see people cross over to buy a car/trailer and rock a Texas license until they are official told to correct it- usually in a traffic stop.

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That’s true all the time. We just get complacent.

Precautions are good but they can go overboard. I was out paddling and snapped a photo. I later saw this couple go by. When I got home I noticed that I captured them in my earlier photo so I zoomed in which is why it’s grainy. Out canoeing and they look dressed for surgery.

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Sweet! I should be golden. I got my two-shot vaccination as soon as it was available. I got my first booster as soon as it was available. The day after I got my SECOND booster I felt pretty flu-ish. I chalked it up to an immune response. Naw. It stuck around. Turns out I had caught my wife’s Covid. No big deal. Two days flu-ish. Four days mild cold-ish and it was gone. Never saw a doctor. Now for some scary stuff… an older friend of mine is supposed to be released from the hospital today after being treated for Covid / pneumonia. I’m sure he was vaccinated and boosted. Maybe the vaccines kept him from dying?

I was at my doctor’s office for an unrelated issue a couple months later. I told him I had had Covid and it was nothing. He told me his whole family has had it and that we’re all going to get it eventually.

The stats say that vaccination is highly protective against a case of CoVid requiring hospitalization. Highly protective is not 100%, there will be some who have a harder time. Same is true for most diseases of which I am aware, like garden variety flu.

I agree that eventually everyone will get it, though I am having the devil of a time figuring this one out for myself. People all around me taking same precautions including double boosted have had a minor case and I am still testing negative. Not complaining because I don’t have a few days to isolate without it interrupting things, but wondering if I have unusual immunity.

Regardless I expect it’ll catch me at some point.

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The home lateral flow tests for covid-19 are antigen tests. If you aren’t harboring viral RNA at the time you take the test, you will test negative. That doesn’t mean you haven’t been infected with SARS-CoV-2 at some point.

Population-based seological tests for antibodies directed against nucleocapsid proteins have shown that a very large percentage of individuals in the UK (over 95%) have in fact been exposed to the virus at some point in time, even though many never had symptoms of infection. Serological testing in the US has been much more lax but the odds are that the percentage of the US population that has already been exposed to the virus is not far behind that of the UK.

The effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing severe infection requiring hospitalization is confounded by the fact that the variants now predominant are much less virulent than the original variant that the vaccines were based on, or the even more virulent delta strain that followed. Severe infections are much less common now and no doubt part of that can be attributed to vaccinations, but some is also due to the fact that the variants that have been predominant since last Winter are simply much less lethal.

Antibody studies on vaccinated individuals have shown that the antibodies formed in response to vaccination boosters wane relatively quickly. By the end of one month the antibody titers required to protect against infection have dropped to less than 50% effectiveness and by the end of two months they are down to around 25%. So the vaccines currently available are relatively ineffective in preventing infection for any length of time, at least based on antibody levels.

A relatively large unknown is the role to which cellular immunity conferred by memory B and T cells and helper T cells protects against severe infection. Again, the extent to which this has been investigated is sadly lacking thus far. Cellular immunity, as opposed to humoral immunity, is the main component of durable protection provided by the immune response. Unfortunately, with SARS-CoV-2 cellular immunity cannot prevent infection because upon a secondary challenge to an antigen, the cellular immune response takes a week or so to get rolling and the incubation period for this virus is so short (three days or less).

In a very real sense, the omicron BA.5 variant that is now predominant in the US may turn out to be a godsend. That variant now accounts for the vast majority of infections in the US and so far no variant has yet come around to out-compete it. Although it is very highly contagious it is much less virulent than preceding variants and a large percentage of the US population is in the process of developing acquired immunity to it. If a sufficiently large percentage of the population develops adaptive immunity to it, it could dramatically decrease the number of new infections.

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Double vaxed, boosted, double boosted, unvaccinated, natural immunity, infected, double infected, fearful, unafraid, fate, we’re all destined to get it, reduced risk, limited immunity; do masks work, help the wearer or others, make it worse or do nothing; isolation, shut downs, do kids need them, hurt them, should they risk vaccination, will.we ever be safe. That’s all.

I’m sitting in NY State. My phone says the government app can alert me if I’m exposed to COVID. I’m going back to Florida.

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Been wondering too if I have “natural immunity”, maybe from the practice my T cells had during the years I was involved with an ER doc who never seemed to get sick but apparently carried all sorts of bugs home to migrate onto me. I, who am normally rarely ill, recall having some sort of nasty viral or bacterial infection about every other month during our relationship but he never seemed to be affected by anything except the occasional tick bite (he figured he had had Lyme’s at least 4 times and kept doxycycline on hand at all times). In retrospect, I think he also gave me mononucleosis during our first dating round 40 years earlier in college when he was in med school and I was a sophomore. Should have dubbed him “Dr. Petri Dish”…

Far as I know, I have yet to have covid, but I was fanatical about distance and scrupulous masking in the pre-vaccine year and was one of the earlier recipients of the Moderna jab, with 3 boosters since. Being retired and living alone made me automatically low risk, realistically. I did get an antibody blood test late last year that showed I had yet to show exposure.

Just got back from 4 days of Greenland skills camp in Michigan, very close quarters with 70 plus people from many parts of the US and Canada, the whole time sans masks or any real distancing. We were all requested to test “clean” before attending but the day after we left there was an email stating several attendees had turned up positive and ill by the last day of camp. Don’t know if any of the camp staff including the kitchen workers would have been included in the pre0testing precaution, but I honestly would have been more surprised if there had been NO infections transmitted during such a large extended gathering.

I’ve tested negative twice (Binax nasal swab) since returning from camp and feel fine, despite being 4 months out from the last booster. Fingers crossed that holds. But I am resigned to eventually getting it at some point considering it is fairly endemic in the population by now. I worked my butt off and scrimped and saved to be able to travel and have fun during retirement and have already lost 2 years of that to the plague. Willing to take my own chances, though still cognizant of protecting those around me who would be more in jeopardy from infection.

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If you want to avoid acquiring an airborne virus infection there is one sure way to do it. Don’t leave your house, don’t let anyone from outside in, and don’t answer your door.

Data collected between September 2021 and February 2022 and reported on the CDC’s own weekly Morbidity and Mortality report indicated that an estimated 75% of children and adolescents were positive for anti-N antibodies. Since anti-nucleocapsid antibodies can only be formed after the virus actually enters the cells of the host, this means that a large majority of children and adolescents had been actively infected with SARS-CoV-2, although in many, possibly most cases the infection was subclinical or completely asymptomatic.

But all the data in that report was collected by February 2022. The very highly transmissible omicron BA.5 variant did not even begin to emerge in the US until very late April, early May and now accounts for the vast majority of infections. So the percentage of children and adolescents that have harbored the virus at some point is certainly much higher than 75%.

At this point it is very likely, in fact nearing certainty, that if you are a child or adolescent you have been infected at some point. And if you are older but live with a child or adolescent you have been exposed.

Masks don’t have to stop all virus particles. They stop large droplets, and that can mean the difference between asymptomatic and fatal. The key is your initial dose.

Getting sick from an infection is not some simple yes/no thing. The end result depends on the outcome of two different races: the virus multiplying and your immune system responding. If the virus multiplies way faster than your immune responds, it will overwhelm and kill. If your immune runs faster, it kills the virus, possibly before you even realize you had it.

To be sure, different variants of the virus run the race at different speeds, and your immune system gets a head start on the race and accelerates faster if you already have antibodies from a similar infection or a vaccine. But for some reason nobody talks about initial dose.

Say you get infected with an aerosol particle containing one virus. Say COVID doubles every six hours; you will have 16 of them after day 1 and 256 after day 2. No big deal, your immune system will detect it and respond quickly enough that you will be asymptomatic.

If on the other hand your initial dose is a large droplet with a million viruses in it, in 2 days you will have a quarter billion of them and your immune may never catch up.

The corollary to this is that the longer time you spend in a room with someone who is infected, the more viruses you will inhale and the higher your initial dose will be. Hence the CDC’s 15 minute exposure rules that got published a ways back.

Even the White House eventually admitted that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was primarily through aerosolized particles, despite the fact the virologists and epidemiologists who had studied prior coronavirus pandemics (SARS and MERS) had been saying so since the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic and that there had been numerous super-spreader events in which multiple individuals in a large room became ill even though they had not been anywhere close to an infected individual.

Here is the first sentence from a blog post from Dr. Alondra Nelson, head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and Deputy Assistant to the President that is on the White House website and was posted March 23, 2022:

“The most common way COVID-19 is transmitted from one person to another is through tiny airborne particles of the virus hanging in indoor air for minutes or hours after an infected person has been there.”

Unfortunately, recognition of this fact was long overdue. Even two-layer cloth masks have at best a filtration efficiency of 12% or less for aerosolized particles and this has been documented in a number of scientific studies. Three-layer surgical masks are a bit better but they were never designed to contain viruses or small aerosols. Their filtration efficiency is on the order of 45% or a little better.

The only masks that have any reasonable efficiency for filtering out aerosolized particles that can contain a sufficiently high titer of virions to cause infection are N-95 respirators or KN-95 imported respirators that have been tested and certified by NIOSH.

My girlfriend has been really sick with Covid twice, most recently two weeks ago after a business trip to Dallas, Texas. I never got sick either time. At all. Not even anything that could resemble a mild cold. I never had a single symptom.

While they keep engineering new viruses to see what happens. Give them a lab on Devil’s Island. What happend on Devil’s Island, stays on Devil’s Island.

Kevburg, I agree that how many viruses are packed in the exposure is probably a major factor in whether someone gets sick after that exposure. Not only with COVID, but also for flu, colds, and norovirus.

I once got extremely sick hours after bicycling behind someone who did did the farmer’s blow and I actually felt some of the spray on my face. Yep, disgusting. But that was the least of it. Earlier that morning, this guy and his wife had been eating breakfast at the same table with us at the B&B. I remember he said something right after breakfast about the eggs were not sitting well, but he still went on the ride. That afternoon while going home, I felt exhausted. At bedtime I felt worse and worse, with MY dinner feeling like a lead block inside me. Symptoms moved to violent sneezing fits and extremely runny nose, and then quickly went to both diarrhea and vomiting. It was like a compressed version of combined influenza and gastrointestinal big, and later I got pneumonia. Effects lasted a long time.

We later heard that it had raged through many of the participants at that bike festival.

And…more recently, I did get COVID. At the very end of our road trip, I woke up (a Tuesday in the early wee hrs) with an extremely dry mouth, throat, and even lower down than that. I chalked it up to the very long days of driving in extremely arid heat in dusty agricultural country and then staying in a motel room with AC that smelled musty. Nothing more developed that day, when we arrived home and ran around catching up with errands. I had planned to paddle the next day. Woke up feeling off and tired, which I figured was just end-of-trip tiredness. But that afternoon The Cough rolled in. Dry, unproductive, ticklish, irritating, sometimes in violent fits that kept me up at night.

To make a long story short, I tested myself the next day and confirmed it was indeed COVID. During the entire 11 days we had been away, I remembered four people sneezing in my vicinity. The first two happened at the beginning of the trip yet I felt great for a week afterward, so I doubt those were the ones. The third time was on Saturday night in a restaurant when another customer sneezed at the next table, and the fourth time on Sunday night when the woman making my tacos sneezed. She turned around, but still…the short incubation period of the latest variant points to one or both of these times.

I did not paddle for two and a half weeks, at the height of summer. I stayed at home for about a week, till I had to get groceries because by then my husband had also come down with COVID. At least I felt well enough not to cough during that time, and I wore a mask as usual.

It was NOT “just like a cold” in my case. More like influenza, with about the first week the worst, and each week thereafter still easily tired and some nighttime coughing (probably from lying down). My husband had milder symptoms BUT he said he lost his sense of smell for a while.

You don’t know if what you have—or infect someone else with—will be mild, moderate, severe, or fatal. Boating in public areas right after symptoms are gone still ranks as selfish and idiotic, IMO.

Sounds like Norovirus. I’ve had it a couple times myself. Fun times.